2200 W 20th St · Panama City, FL 32405

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1958 0.26 ac lot Est $250k · 44% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors! An outstanding residential property with great potential awaits those seeking a profitable flipping opportunity. Tucked away in the heart of Panama City, this property is ready for your expertise and creative touch to turn it into a sought-after home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, it offers convenience and comfort, making it attractive to buyers looking for a thriving community to settle in. The property's proximity to amenities, schools, parks, and transportation adds to its appeal, making it an ideal choice for families and individuals alike. This investor special provides a promising platform for a successful flipping project, with the existing structure ready

Key facts

• Heart of panama city
• Updating the kitchen
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• HEART OF PANAMA CITY
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD
• PROXIMITY TO AMENITIES
• UPDATING THE KITCHEN
• UPDATING THE BATHROOM
• ENHANCING CURB APPEAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Additional parking (no garage); 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-story; Zoned for single-family residential
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Frontage on a city street; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.80%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,924
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 W 20th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,412 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$81	99
1812 Foster Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-7%)	3mo	$220,000	$167	70
1712 Foster Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-3%)	4mo	$325,000	$238	70
1910 Chestnut Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+3%)	8mo	$275,000	$189	65
1717 Arthur Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,224 (-13%)	1mo	$128,000	$105	59
1612 Lindenwood Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+3%)	6mo	$260,000	$179	57
2400 W 16th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+5%)	6mo	$255,000	$172	57
1603 Lindenwood Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-2%)	5mo	$258,000	$186	57
1604 W 22nd St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (-2%)	8mo	$245,000	$177	51
2703 W 18th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-14%)	6mo	$246,000	$202	47
1606 Fairy Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-11%)	0mo	$222,000	$177	43
3108 W 20th Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+13%)	4mo	$127,400	$80	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,006
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $31,718
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,567/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,168

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $562	-5% $523	+0% $483	+5% $444	+10% $404
Rent	-10% $343	-5% $413	+0% $483	+5% $553	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $554	-0.5pp $519	base $483	+0.5pp $447	+1.0pp $410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	21d	1	0.27mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	21d	1	0.45mi
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	21d	1	1.01mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	21d	1	1.06mi
1827 Balboa Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	14d	1	1.10mi
901 W 19th St Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,168	$1.48	21d	5	1.20mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	21d	1	1.23mi
1913 Laurel Ave Unit A Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,725	$1.39	14d	1	1.26mi
2100 W Beach Dr Unit F102 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	21d	1	1.33mi
723 W 19th St Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,520	$1.30	21d	15	1.38mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Active
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $139,900 Active
4. 2024-04-15
   listed $164,900 Active
5. 2024-02-16
   historical
6. 2024-01-18
   listed $159,000 Active
7. 2023-06-28
   status Pending
8. 2023-06-28
   price $160,000
9. 2023-06-28
   historical
10. 2023-06-23
    listed $135,000 Active
11. 2023-03-02
    status Active
12. 2023-01-31
    status Active
13. 2022-12-05
    status Pending
14. 2022-10-21
    historical
15. 2022-10-21
    historical
16. 2022-02-01
    historical
17. 2022-02-01
    historical
18. 2021-10-29
    listed $145,000
19. 2021-10-21
    listed $150,000
20. 2006-04-20
    soldstatus $120,000
21. 2006-04-13
    soldstatus $120,000
22. 2005-10-12
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,567 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,567 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,567
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $3,763
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$903
• After-tax cash flow: $4,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $139,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Listed $164,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-02-16 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Listed $159,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-06-28 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-06-28 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-06-28 Price Changed $160,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listed $135,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2023-01-31 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2022-12-05 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2022-10-21 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2022-10-21 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2022-02-01 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2022-02-01 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-10-29 Listed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-10-21 Listed $150,000 CPARMLS
• 2006-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-13 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-10-12 Listed $149,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,567 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.