44 Jacobs Walk #12 · Ray City, GA 31635

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,453 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2004 Fair condition 0.50 ac lot $127/sqft · 15% below area Est $219k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath home needs updating, but will shine in no time. Sold "As-Is".

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($375/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Ray City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#260 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lanier County (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 174 in GA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lanier County Primary School (498 students, 86% FRL); Lanier County Middle School (math 27% / reading 41%, grade F, #201 of 470 statewide, top 44%, 413 students, 86% FRL); Lanier County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 451 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 65% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Lanier County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,698 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,523
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -15.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Jacobs Walk #12	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,453 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$134	100
44 Jacobs Walk	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,453 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$134	100
16 Jacobs Walk	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-2%)	1mo	$225,000	$158	89
38 Jacob's Walk	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-1%)	10mo	$226,000	$157	88
16 Ridge Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-2%)	6mo	$208,000	$147	82
20 Ridge Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+7%)	2mo	$239,150	$154	79
25 Smith Dairy Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-2%)	2mo	$245,000	$173	76
25 Smith Dairy Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-2%)	2mo	$245,000	$173	76
9 Smith Dairy Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,523 (+5%)	2mo	$257,000	$169	76
37 Ridge Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (+15%)	0mo	$256,000	$153	64
531 Boyette Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+13%)	3mo	$245,000	$150	60
39 Barrett Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (+15%)	18mo	$250,000	$150	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $38,588
• Equity at exit: $98,353

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $118,070
• Equity at exit: $164,653

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31635

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,774/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $95	+0% $31	+5% $-33	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-34	+0% $31	+5% $97	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $78	base $31	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-20
   listed $184,900 New 88-char remark

   Show marketing remark (88 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home needs updating, but will shine in no time. Sold "As-Is".

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,774
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$2,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$656
• After-tax cash flow: $1,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate updates to kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, and paint to improve its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major flooring — dated and worn
• Major paint — worn and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms
• Resale new flooring — modernizing the flooring
• Resale painting — refreshing the interior

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms ↑
• Resale new flooring — modernizing the flooring ↑
• Resale painting — refreshing the interior ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lanier County
• NCES district ID: 1303240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,019
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #6476
• State rank: #67 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ray City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #14250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,978

Population outlook (Lanier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,743 people
• By 2030: 10,892 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 10,975 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 10,764 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 9,418 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 7,419 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lanier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.6% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Current HPI: 201.1664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $184,900 GAMLS