3818 N Averill Ave · Flint, MI 48506

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1967 9,583 sqft lot Est $149k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 2 bath home with detached garage. Like new move in condition. Absolutely a 10!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1.5 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas; Forced air heating
• Home design: Residential property; 2-story structure; Built in 1967; Frontage approximately 88 feet
• Construction: Wood exterior; Basement foundation; Below-grade area approximately 946
• Exterior features: Above-ground pool; Paved street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the entry level (approx. 11 x 7)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 15 x 15 and 15 x 10); Two bedrooms on the entry level (approx. 13 wide and 11 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one on the entry level, one on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement present (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 213% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $125k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3226 Mcclure Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,775 (+7%)	6mo	$133,000	$75	66
3217 Salishan Cir	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,688 (+2%)	14mo	$135,000	$80	58
2934 Arizona Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,610 (-3%)	13mo	$90,000	$56	56
4057 Welcome Dr	0.59mi	4/1.5	1,576 (-5%)	8mo	$195,000	$124	56
3027 Courtesy Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,700 (+3%)	13mo	$210,000	$124	52
3707 Dakota St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,724 (+4%)	11mo	$155,000	$90	50
3613 Sherry St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,900 (+15%)	12mo	$145,000	$76	42
2910 Arizona Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,450 (-12%)	11mo	$73,000	$50	39
3088 Layman Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-11%)	5mo	$174,000	$118	39
3741 Delaware Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,758 (+6%)	10mo	$91,000	$52	39
3805 Delaware Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,507 (-9%)	7mo	$150,000	$100	36
3709 Delaware Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,415 (-14%)	8mo	$131,325	$93	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,929
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $19,718
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48506

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,171/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,019

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $343	-5% $308	+0% $272	+5% $237	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $218	+0% $272	+5% $326	+10% $380
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $304	base $272	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on marketlisting id $125,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $125,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,548 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,171
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,314
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$315
• After-tax cash flow: $2,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flint School District
• NCES district ID: 2614520
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $25,954
• Composite: 10.97/100
• National rank: #14642
• State rank: #714 of 760 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flint, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 93,814
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,712
• Household income: $47,929
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.31%
• Current HPI: 90.0494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+56.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2015-11-18 Sold (MLS) $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-09-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-09-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-05-01 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-05-01 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-03-10 Sold (MLS) $47,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-03-10 Sold (MLS) $47,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-02-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-29 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-29 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-08-11 Sold (MLS) $16,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-08-11 Sold (MLS) $16,700 REALCOMP
• 2009-06-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-06 Listed $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-06 Listed $20,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-06-12 Sold (MLS) $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-06-11 Sold (MLS) $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-06-11 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-05-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-03-21 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-03-20 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-03-20 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,171 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.