1800 Preston on the Lake Blvd · Little Elm, TX 75068

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 268 sqft · Land public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1996 ↓ 47% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Taken down to the studs and fully renovated in 2025, this 1985 home now offers modern finishes, efficient systems, and a thoughtful layout. Features include a tankless water heater, mini-split units in every room, spacious kitchen with abundant cabinets and counters, full vanity with extra storage, a 26' x 12' deck with gate, and an 8' x 10' shed. Move-in ready with handpicked upgrades throughout.

Key facts

• Community pool
• New air conditioner
• New hot water heater

Tags

• BIKE TRAILS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PARK
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AIR CONDITIONER
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.8% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.90%
• DSCR: 6.96
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $67,316
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.46×
• Total profit: $139,150
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $1,247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $39,900 Active 1027-char remark
16. 2025-09-16
    listed $75,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Taken down to the studs and fully renovated in 2025, this 1985 home now offers modern finishes, efficient systems, and a thoughtful layout. Features include a tankless water heater, mini-split units in every room, spacious kitchen with abundant cabinets and counters, full vanity with extra storage, a 26' x 12' deck with gate, and an 8' x 10' shed. Move-in ready with handpicked upgrades throughout.

17. 2025-08-05
    listed $750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $15,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,655
• After-tax cash flow: $11,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Elm ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827720
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,400
• Composite: 36.17/100
• National rank: #4734
• State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

Livability — Little Elm

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #790
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Elm, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 72,710
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-46.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $39,900 FSBO.com
• 2025-09-16 Listed $75,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-08-05 Listed for Rent $750 REDFIN

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $296,979 · +78.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.