516 W Morgan St · Denison, TX 75020

$175,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,453 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1928 7,492 sqft lot $51/sqft · 34% below area Est $265k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Denison fix and flip opportunity! This property is a complete makeover project for an investor seeking high equity potential. Sold strictly AS-IS. This home is the perfect blank canvas for your next transformation. Located west of the historic downtown area, it offers a prime location for a high-end resale or a high-yield rental. With a traditional layout and a generous lot size, the potential for forced appreciation is significant. This is a true value-add project for those looking to build immediate equity in the booming Denison market. No seller repairs will be provided. Buyer and buyer agent to verify all measurements, schools, and property details. Bring your vision and your crew. Submit your highest and best offer today!

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Built 1928
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 485 active listings in the ZIP; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.73%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,755
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -33.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500-502 W Owings St	0.08mi	6/5.0 (+1)	3,038 (-12%)	3mo	$479,000	$158	65
909 W Gandy	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,493 (+1%)	16mo	$449,500	$129	50
1128 W Sears St	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,280 (-5%)	15mo	$549,000	$167	36
402 N Houston Ave	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,983 (-14%)	12mo	$339,000	$114	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,905
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,197
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75020

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 485
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,702/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $496	-5% $447	+0% $397	+5% $348	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $317	+0% $397	+5% $478	+10% $559
Rate	-1.0pp $485	-0.5pp $442	base $397	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 110 DOM
18. 2026-02-07
    listed $175,000 Active 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Denison fix and flip opportunity! This property is a complete makeover project for an investor seeking high equity potential. Sold strictly AS-IS. This home is the perfect blank canvas for your next transformation. Located west of the historic downtown area, it offers a prime location for a high-end resale or a high-yield rental. With a traditional layout and a generous lot size, the potential for forced appreciation is significant. This is a true value-add project for those looking to build immediate equity in the booming Denison market. No seller repairs will be provided. Buyer and buyer agent to verify all measurements, schools, and property details. Bring your vision and your crew. Submit your highest and best offer today!

19. 2025-09-26
    soldstatus
20. 2023-12-09
    historical
21. 2023-12-04
    price $188,000
22. 2023-11-30
    status Active
23. 2023-10-31
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2023-07-13
    status Active
25. 2023-07-04
    status Pending
26. 2023-06-21
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2023-06-09
    listed $199,900 Active
28. 2022-05-23
    historical
29. 2022-04-09
    listed $219,000 Active
30. 2014-08-07
    historical
31. 2014-05-02
    price $25,000
32. 2014-04-16
    price $28,000
33. 2014-03-22
    price $35,000
34. 2014-02-06
    listed $29,000 Active
35. 2009-09-11
    soldstatus
36. 2008-11-13
    soldstatus
37. 2008-11-07
    soldstatus
38. 2008-10-29
    historical
39. 2008-10-02
    listed $12,500
40. 2007-06-29
    soldstatus
41. 2007-06-11
    historical
42. 2007-05-22
    listed $15,900
43. 2005-03-17
    soldstatus
44. 2005-01-07
    soldstatus
45. 2001-06-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,702 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$501/yr (+$42/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,702
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$507
• After-tax cash flow: $4,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denison, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,835
• Household income: $71,605
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.96%
• Current HPI: 257.1806
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1000.6% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-12-04 Price Changed $188,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-30 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-10-31 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-07-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-07-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-06-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-06-09 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2022-05-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-04-09 Listed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2014-08-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-05-02 Price Changed $25,000 NTREIS
• 2014-04-16 Price Changed $28,000 NTREIS
• 2014-03-22 Price Changed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2014-02-06 Listed $29,000 NTREIS
• 2009-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-11-07 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-10-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-10-02 Listed $12,500 NTREIS
• 2007-06-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-06-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-05-22 Listed $15,900 NTREIS
• 2005-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,702 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.