18780 S Central Point Rd #20 · Oregon City, OR 97045

$59,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Other · 59 Days on market

Built 1969 $86/sqft · 42% below area Est $102k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1969 Parkway in Mt Pleasant Mobile Home Community. Space rent is $895. Vinyl windows, Insulated rubber roof, updated furnace and water heater. all appliances are included. New decks front and back, and generous covered parking and covered entry. Fenced back yard.Owner is selling agent

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1969
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $958 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.8% vs local median 2.6% in Oregon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in OR, #271 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 408 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $57,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.57%
• DSCR: 4.10
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,190
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -42.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $48,255
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.54×
• Total profit: $107,989
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97045

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $958

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18713 S Central Point Rd Oregon City, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,695	$2.08	3d	3	0.16mi
469 Hilltop Ave Oregon City, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,245	$2.08	43d	2	0.78mi
630 Pleasant Ave Oregon City, OR	2.0	1.0–1.5	724	$1,749	$2.42	3d	4	0.88mi
13609 Gaffney Ln Oregon City, OR	1.0	1.0	462	$1,250	$2.71	43d	1	0.90mi
701 Molalla Ave Oregon City, OR	2.0	2.0	700	$1,695	$2.42	43d	1	0.91mi
14155 Beavercreek Rd Oregon City, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,638	$1.86	1d	4	1.32mi
14155 S Beavercreek Rd Unit 204 Oregon City, OR	1.0	1.0	612	$1,275	$2.08	24d	1	1.36mi
617 Monroe St Unit 205 Oregon City, OR	1.0	1.0	510	$1,495	$2.93	17d	1	1.42mi
617 Monroe St Oregon City, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$2,295	$3.71	1d	2	1.42mi
617 Monroe St Unit 207 Oregon City, OR	1.0	1.0	562	$1,575	$2.80	17d	1	1.42mi
617 Monroe St Unit 204 Oregon City, OR	2.0	1.0	727	$2,295	$3.16	17d	1	1.42mi
1507 9th St Oregon City, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	817	$1,600	$1.96	1d	3	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $59,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $65,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-04-20
    listed $65,000 Active 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    1969 Parkway in Mt Pleasant Mobile Home Community. Space rent is $895. Vinyl windows, Insulated rubber roof, updated furnace and water heater. all appliances are included. New decks front and back, and generous covered parking and covered entry. Fenced back yard.Owner is selling agent

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $11,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,693
• After-tax cash flow: $8,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon City SD 62
• NCES district ID: 4109330
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $64,272
• Composite: 26.65/100
• National rank: #7169
• State rank: #40 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oregon City

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #271

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oregon City, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 57,526
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 57,526
• Household income: $103,573
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -624.55%
• Current HPI: 301.9661
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $65,000 RMLS

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2018): $65 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.