2000 S Lakeshore Dr · Browns Mills, NJ 08015

$295,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1975 7,597 sqft lot Est $323k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

Key facts

• Front screened porch
• Lake views
• Picturesque lot

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• PICTURESQUE LOT
• FRONT SCREENED PORCH
• FLEXIBLE LIVING ARRANGEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.2% in Browns Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#436 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $295k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.08%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,560
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2000 S Lakeshore Dr	0.00mi	5/1.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$296,500	$221	100
45 Hawthorne St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+4%)	13mo	$300,000	$216	70
301 N Lakeshore Dr	0.46mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,424 (+6%)	2mo	$250,000	$176	62
62 Aster St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (+10%)	0mo	$354,900	$240	55
75 Larkspur St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	14mo	$291,500	$243	44
116 Castro St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (+9%)	14mo	$373,000	$256	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-16,500
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $26,264
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08015

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,932/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,718

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $573	+0% $490	+5% $406	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $358	+0% $490	+5% $621	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $565	base $490	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Chandler St Browns Mills, NJ	5.0	3.0	1136	$3,500	$3.08	2d	1	0.25mi
126 Juniper Ave Browns Mills, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,500	$2.29	19d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-10
   status Active
4. 2025-12-09
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-11-17
   listed $295,000 Active
6. 2016-12-21
   soldstatus $89,000
7. 2016-11-21
   soldstatus $89,000 Sold 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

8. 2016-11-21
   soldstatus $89,000 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

9. 2016-10-03
   status Under Contract 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

10. 2016-10-03
    status Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

11. 2016-10-01
    historical 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

12. 2016-09-26
    historical 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

13. 2016-06-24
    price $96,900 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

14. 2016-04-02
    listed $99,900 Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

15. 2016-03-30
    listed $96,900 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Lake View Location. This 5 bedroom home sits on a fenced corner lot with a beautiful view of Mirror Lake. Tons of potential and priced to sell. This is NOT a short sale or foreclosure. Schedule to view it quickly because at this price it won't last.

16. 1987-02-20
    soldstatus $62,263
17. 1984-11-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,932 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,139 · $512/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,207/yr (+$101/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,932
• − Insurance: −$2,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,204
• − Management: −$3,204
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable income: $1,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$321
• After-tax cash flow: $5,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemberton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3412810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,951
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7979
• State rank: #382 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Browns Mills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #15864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Browns Mills, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 19,143

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.84%
• Current HPI: 329.1731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+490.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-29 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-09 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $295,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-21 Sold (MLS) $89,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-21 Sold (MLS) $89,000 TREND
• 2016-10-03 Pending — TREND
• 2016-10-03 Relisted — TREND
• 2016-10-01 Delisted — TREND
• 2016-09-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-24 Price Changed $96,900 TREND
• 2016-04-02 Listed $99,900 TREND
• 2016-03-30 Listed $96,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $62,263 Public Records
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,932 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.