0 8536 Kern canyon Rd · East Niles, CA 93306

$109,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $120k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2 bedroom 2 bath home in Kern Canyon Estates. 2 car garage. Lovely outside area. With a workshop/office/art studio. At this price it won't last long

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1974
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Sewer
• Construction: Other roof (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Property is leased; Vacant

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central A/C
• Interior features: Range/Oven; Microwave; Central A/C; Central Heat; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $110k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,349 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.71%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,616
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #150	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$93,000	$69	85
9305 Eastwind Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	78
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #152	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	15mo	$75,000	$56	74
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #172	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	12mo	$95,000	$76	73
8920 Eastwind Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	13mo	$270,000	$201	70
8500 Kern Canyon Rd #123	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-2%)	18mo	$117,000	$89	69
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #8	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (+11%)	9mo	$150,000	$101	69
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #83	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+10%)	13mo	$95,000	$65	66
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #94	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (+10%)	14mo	$160,000	$108	66
8929 Eastwind Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	17mo	$270,000	$216	54
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	22mo	$120,000	$78	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $34,139
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $92,492
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $840

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $109,999

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	3d	1	0.39mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	44d	1	0.98mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	3d	1	1.16mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	3d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,999 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,999 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,999 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $109,999 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-25
    listed $115,000 Active
17. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus $65,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom 2 bath home in Kern Canyon Estates. 2 car garage. Lovely outside area. With a workshop/office/art studio. At this price it won't last long

18. 2018-04-13
    listed $65,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Cute 2 bedroom 2 bath home in Kern Canyon Estates. 2 car garage. Lovely outside area. With a workshop/office/art studio. At this price it won't last long

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $8,850
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,124
• After-tax cash flow: $7,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+76.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $115,000 GEMLS
• 2018-06-06 Sold (MLS) $65,000 TAAR
• 2018-04-13 Listed $65,000 TAAR