1019 4th St · Bethlehem, PA 18015

$218,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1900 1,064 sqft lot $205/sqft · at area comps Est $216k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring Your Offer! Great Starter Home, Newer Rubber Roof, Windows And Front Porch Shingles. 3 Bedroom, 1 Bath, Nice Size Living Room, Dining Room And Kitchen. Also Has Gas Heat.

Key facts

• Steel stacks views
• Built 1900
• Listed 48 days

Tags

• STEEL STACKS VIEWS
• PRIVATE FENCED IN YARD
• CLEAN DRY WALK OUT BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electrical service with circuit breakers; Gas water heater
• Home design: 2-story brick home; Rubber roof; Zoned 04RM
• Construction: Brick construction; Rubber roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Has view; Curbs

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor (11 x 9); Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Second-floor bedroom (11 x 10); Second-floor bedroom, walk-through (14 x 9); Second-floor bedroom (12 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl / luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (first floor, 9 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating (gas); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Storm door(s); Dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (lower level); Dryer hookup (lower level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $218k implies a 337% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,030 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,902
• List price: $218,000
• Delta: 0.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-14,691
• Equity at exit: $32,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $41,441
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18015

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,807/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,753

Max offer price $218,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $249	+0% $188	+5% $126	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $109	+0% $188	+5% $266	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $243	base $188	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
938 E 4th St #401 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,150	$2.32	44d	1	0.04mi
938 E 4th St Unit 201 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	982	$2,350	$2.39	44d	1	0.04mi
938 E 4th St Unit G02 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	813	$1,970	$2.42	15d	1	0.04mi
938 E 4th St Unit 102 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	813	$1,970	$2.42	44d	1	0.04mi
1113 E 4th St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	24d	1	0.08mi
738 E 4th St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	15d	1	0.21mi
1201 E 4th St Unit 4 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.23mi
1209 Mechanic St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1003	$2,000	$1.99	22d	1	0.25mi
740 Laufer St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	910	$1,650	$1.81	15d	1	0.25mi
610 E 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$3,008	$3.09	3d	8	0.32mi
436 Pierce St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1452	$2,250	$1.55	3d	1	0.36mi
1236 E 7th St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1424	$2,350	$1.65	3d	1	0.37mi
1275 E 4th St Unit 202 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,950	$1.59	24d	1	0.41mi
824 E 8th St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.5	952	$1,400	$1.47	44d	1	0.43mi
1306 E 4th St #3 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	44d	1	0.43mi
311 E 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1189	$2,330	$1.96	3d	3	0.56mi
650 E North St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,350	$2.51	15d	7	0.82mi
11 W 2nd St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,550	$1.57	24d	4	0.83mi
530 High St Unit 32 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,595	$1.99	15d	1	0.86mi
1630 E 9th St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	15d	1	0.87mi
42 E Wall St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.0	1474	$2,550	$1.73	24d	1	0.90mi
708 Linden St Unit 2 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	15d	1	0.94mi
30 E Market St Apt 1 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	0.96mi
30 E Market St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	24d	1	0.96mi
228 W 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	44d	1	0.99mi
746 Linden St Unit 2 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,975	$1.96	44d	1	1.00mi
316 E Union Blvd Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1460	$2,145	$1.47	44d	1	1.00mi
822 Elm St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1406	$2,195	$1.56	15d	1	1.00mi
229 E Union Blvd Unit 2nd Floor Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	982	$1,595	$1.62	3d	1	1.06mi
229 E Union Blvd Unit 1st Floor Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,675	$1.68	3d	1	1.06mi
537 Goepp Cir Unit B Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1225	$1,895	$1.55	44d	1	1.07mi
401 E Goepp St #2 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,875	$2.50	24d	1	1.08mi
62 E Garrison St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	44d	1	1.11mi
521 Hess St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	22d	1	1.11mi
30 W Broad St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	660	$2,620	$3.97	3d	20	1.15mi
30 W Broad St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	648	$2,490	$3.84	15d	14	1.15mi
406 W 9th St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1152	$2,100	$1.82	22d	1	1.17mi
122 E Goepp St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1137	$1,895	$1.67	3d	1	1.17mi
414 Cherokee St Unit 414 2nd Fl Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	15d	1	1.21mi
326 E Frankford St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	24d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $218,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $218,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $218,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $218,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $218,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $218,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $218,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $218,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-04-21
    listed $218,000 Active 502-char remark
12. 2005-01-26
    soldstatus $49,900
13. 2004-12-30
    soldstatus $49,900 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Bring Your Offer! Great Starter Home, Newer Rubber Roof, Windows And Front Porch Shingles. 3 Bedroom, 1 Bath, Nice Size Living Room, Dining Room And Kitchen. Also Has Gas Heat.

14. 2004-10-13
    listed $49,900 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Bring Your Offer! Great Starter Home, Newer Rubber Roof, Windows And Front Porch Shingles. 3 Bedroom, 1 Bath, Nice Size Living Room, Dining Room And Kitchen. Also Has Gas Heat.

15. 1979-10-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,807 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,626 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$819/yr (+$68/mo · 45.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$1,807
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$1,388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$333
• After-tax cash flow: $2,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,124
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5068
• State rank: #342 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bethlehem

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #1122

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethlehem, PA
• County: Northampton County · 236,814 people
• City population: 129,661
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,852
• Household income: $60,800
• Rent vs Own: 49.5% rent · 50.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Danish 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.95%
• Current HPI: 277.4721
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+2080.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $218,000 GLVRMLS
• 2005-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2004-12-30 Sold (MLS) $49,900 GLVRMLS
• 2004-10-13 Listed $49,900 GLVRMLS
• 1979-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,807 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.