2609 W Southern Ave #135 · Tempe, AZ 85282

$67,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition Est $70k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contempo Tempe, a vibrant 55+ community that may allow residents 40+ with park approval. This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features plank flooring throughout, spacious living areas, and a layout designed for entertaining. Enjoy a separate living room, great room, dining area, and a large kitchen with abundant cabinetry and pantry storage. The primary suite offers a walk-in shower and generous closet space, while the guest bedroom is roomy and inviting. A large laundry room includes extra cabinets, built-in desk. Outside, relax on the covered deck, enjoy the fenced backyard. Storage shed . Community amenities include a clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa, and social activities. Co

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided by listing agent
• HOA & community: Land lease of $915 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Pickleball courts; Pickleball; Near bus stop; Community media room; Biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Leasehold ownership; Manufactured/mobile home
• Construction: Board & batten siding; Wood frame construction; Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Shed(s); Chain link fencing; Natural desert front landscaping; Natural desert back landscaping; Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in electric oven; Kitchen island; Pantry; Laminate counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Owner-listed building area source

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ward Traditional Academy (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 377 students, 25% FRL); Geneva Epps Mosley Middle School (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #188 of 218 statewide, top 88%, 755 students, 72% FRL); Tempe High School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #258 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,584 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $469 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,881 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.20%
• DSCR: 3.81
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2609 W Southern Ave #379	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-5%)	1mo	$135,000	$114	90
2609 W Southern Ave #335	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	12mo	$76,000	$61	87
2609 W Southern Ave #398	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$17,500	$13	85
2609 W Southern Ave #441	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	3mo	$60,000	$52	85
2401 W Southern Ave #481	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$45,000	$36	84
2609 W Southern Ave #90	0.05mi	2/1.5	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$38,000	$28	82
2609 W Southern Ave #117	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	9mo	$125,000	$109	77
2609 W Southern Ave #201	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	14mo	$65,000	$56	73
2609 W Southern Ave #108	0.05mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (-10%)	2mo	$55,000	$49	72
2401 W Southern Ave #113	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	5mo	$86,000	$64	69
2609 W Southern Ave #221	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	13mo	$75,500	$56	69
2401 W Southern Ave #204	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	9mo	$69,900	$62	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $47,342
• Equity at exit: $10,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $102,373
• Equity at exit: $5,871

Cash invested: $19,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85282

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,018/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $1,001

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $67,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,048	-5% $1,025	+0% $1,001	+5% $978	+10% $954
Rent	-10% $854	-5% $928	+0% $1,001	+5% $1,075	+10% $1,148
Rate	-1.0pp $1,035	-0.5pp $1,019	base $1,001	+0.5pp $984	+1.0pp $966

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,975
• Closing costs: $2,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2381 W Garden Dr #2357 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,199	$1.52	19d	1	0.46mi
2381 W Garden Dr #2365 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,300	$1.60	0d	1	0.46mi
4365 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,985	$1.63	0d	1	0.46mi
2348 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,100	$0.79	18d	1	0.47mi
4389 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1396	$2,150	$1.54	0d	1	0.48mi
2349 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,030	$1.45	0d	1	0.48mi
1812 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.5	1148	$2,075	$1.81	3d	1	0.52mi
1818 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1148	$2,150	$1.87	12d	1	0.52mi
2150 W Alameda Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.5	1155	$1,899	$1.64	23d	1	0.56mi
1688 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	894	$1,650	$1.85	0d	1	0.58mi
2326 W Carson Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,925	$1.83	0d	1	0.60mi
2401 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,700	$1.58	3d	1	0.67mi
3226 S Albert Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,500	$1.06	0d	1	0.70mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,900	$1.58	0d	1	0.70mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,950	$1.62	16d	1	0.70mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,900	$1.58	12d	1	0.70mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,808	$2.05	0d	28	0.72mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,809	$1.91	5d	1	0.77mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,776	$1.87	3d	1	0.77mi
1440 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,950	$1.81	0d	1	0.77mi
4328 E Saint Catherine Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,000	$1.57	0d	1	0.78mi
4901 S Calle Los Cerros Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,995	$2.30	3d	3	0.78mi
4901 S Calle Los Cerros Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,995	$2.30	0d	3	0.78mi
4312 E Burgess Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,675	$1.63	0d	1	0.83mi
7409 S 46th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,975	$1.76	16d	1	0.94mi
4163 E Pecan Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,999	$1.69	16d	1	0.96mi
7027 S 43rd Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1203	$2,200	$1.83	25d	1	0.98mi
4424 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,532	$1.65	0d	52	1.03mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	0d	20	1.03mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,901	$2.00	12d	19	1.03mi
4005 E La Salle St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,859	$1.62	21d	1	1.20mi
2100 S Priest Dr Unit 1386547P Tempe, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	973	$2,196	$2.26	6d	2	1.22mi
4839 S Darrow Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,695	$2.38	0d	12	1.26mi
4441 E Wood St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,295	$1.28	14d	1	1.27mi
4514 E Riverside St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1008	$995	$0.99	0d	1	1.28mi
4410 E Pueblo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	0d	1	1.29mi
4035 S 45th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	792	$1,300	$1.64	0d	1	1.29mi
4615 E Jones Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	0d	1	1.30mi
4420 E Wood St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1016	$1,300	$1.28	0d	1	1.32mi
1222 W Baseline Rd #261 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	0d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $67,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $67,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,018
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$1,975
• Taxable income: $11,626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,790
• After-tax cash flow: $9,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Contempo Tempe offers a good condition with plank flooring and ample storage. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and energy-efficient updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and enhances comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and enhances comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,624
• Household income: $79,036
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2973.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.77%
• Current HPI: 353.6986
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $67,900 ARMLS