1304 Samaria Rd · Bedford, MI 48177

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1900 0.68 ac lot $74/sqft · 38% below area Est $239k · 38% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Temperance Farmstead – Historic Roots & Modern Potential 0.66-acre property in Temperance featuring a ~2,000 sq. ft. traditional Upright and Wing farmhouse. This property is overall in solid condition but requires some cosmetic touches to reach top of market . While the interior has the classic, older floor plan, the main mechanicals are in good shape with a solid working furnace and central AC. The basement is clean and dry with concrete floors and reinforced walls. The lot includes a historic red barn that was formerly the town's post office; the barn is in disrepair and will likely need to be removed by the buyer. Quiet rural setting located 15 minutes from Toledo. Best for an investor, hobby farmer, or a DIY buyer looking for a solid structure to renovate. Being sold as-is, all inspections are for buyer information only; seller will make no repairs

Key facts

• Central ac
• Historic red barn
• Quiet rural setting

Tags

• CLEAN AND DRY BASEMENT
• SOLID WORKING FURNACE
• CENTRAL AC
• HISTORIC RED BARN
• QUIET RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bedford Public Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #150 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,590 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,563
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -37.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10430 Jackman Rd	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,938 (-3%)	14mo	$580,000	$299	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $23,732
• Equity at exit: $66,997

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $76,333
• Equity at exit: $103,250

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48177

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $175,000 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    Charming Temperance Farmstead – Historic Roots & Modern Potential 0.66-acre property in Temperance featuring a ~2,000 sq. ft. traditional Upright and Wing farmhouse. This property is overall in solid condition but requires some cosmetic touches to reach top of market . While the interior has the classic, older floor plan, the main mechanicals are in good shape with a solid working furnace and central AC. The basement is clean and dry with concrete floors and reinforced walls. The lot includes a historic red barn that was formerly the town's post office; the barn is in disrepair and will likely need to be removed by the buyer. Quiet rural setting located 15 minutes from Toledo. Best for an investor, hobby farmer, or a DIY buyer looking for a solid structure to renovate. Being sold as-is, all inspections are for buyer information only; seller will make no repairs

16. 2026-05-04
    price $175,000 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    Charming Temperance Farmstead – Historic Roots & Modern Potential 0.66-acre property in Temperance featuring a ~2,000 sq. ft. traditional Upright and Wing farmhouse. This property is overall in solid condition but requires some cosmetic touches to reach top of market . While the interior has the classic, older floor plan, the main mechanicals are in good shape with a solid working furnace and central AC. The basement is clean and dry with concrete floors and reinforced walls. The lot includes a historic red barn that was formerly the town's post office; the barn is in disrepair and will likely need to be removed by the buyer. Quiet rural setting located 15 minutes from Toledo. Best for an investor, hobby farmer, or a DIY buyer looking for a solid structure to renovate. Being sold as-is, all inspections are for buyer information only; seller will make no repairs

17. 2026-04-22
    listed $199,000 Active 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    Charming Temperance Farmstead – Historic Roots & Modern Potential 0.66-acre property in Temperance featuring a ~2,000 sq. ft. traditional Upright and Wing farmhouse. This property is overall in solid condition but requires some cosmetic touches to reach top of market . While the interior has the classic, older floor plan, the main mechanicals are in good shape with a solid working furnace and central AC. The basement is clean and dry with concrete floors and reinforced walls. The lot includes a historic red barn that was formerly the town's post office; the barn is in disrepair and will likely need to be removed by the buyer. Quiet rural setting located 15 minutes from Toledo. Best for an investor, hobby farmer, or a DIY buyer looking for a solid structure to renovate. Being sold as-is, all inspections are for buyer information only; seller will make no repairs

18. 2026-04-22
    listed $199,000 Active 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    Charming Temperance Farmstead – Historic Roots & Modern Potential 0.66-acre property in Temperance featuring a ~2,000 sq. ft. traditional Upright and Wing farmhouse. This property is overall in solid condition but requires some cosmetic touches to reach top of market . While the interior has the classic, older floor plan, the main mechanicals are in good shape with a solid working furnace and central AC. The basement is clean and dry with concrete floors and reinforced walls. The lot includes a historic red barn that was formerly the town's post office; the barn is in disrepair and will likely need to be removed by the buyer. Quiet rural setting located 15 minutes from Toledo. Best for an investor, hobby farmer, or a DIY buyer looking for a solid structure to renovate. Being sold as-is, all inspections are for buyer information only; seller will make no repairs

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,425 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$869/yr (+$72/mo · 156.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,273
• − Management: −$1,273
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,415
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$339
• After-tax cash flow: $1,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604470
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $63,784
• Composite: 38.22/100
• National rank: #4252
• State rank: #150 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bedford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 464

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Listed $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Listed $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $556 · -58.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.