The Sabine F Plan · Cleveland, TX 77328

$269,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Sabine! This two-story home is ready for anything with its great layout and modern touches. On the main floor, you'll find an open concept family and kitchen area as well as a guest room and bathroom. The primary suite is also on the main floor and has a large walk-in closet. Upstairs, there are two more bedrooms and additional bathroom plus a loft and a study/flex space. Make it your own with The Sabine's flexible floor plan. From additional garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The Sabine your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Covered patio
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,237.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,996 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,237
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -9.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25988 Liberation Rd	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,128 (0%)	9mo	$289,990	$136	85
10943 Independence Rd	0.09mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,084 (-2%)	4mo	$329,504	$158	84
11056 Patriot Ct	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,052 (-4%)	11mo	$299,758	$146	70
26023 Liberation Rd	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,052 (-4%)	19mo	$309,978	$151	69
11005 Crossno Dr	0.15mi	5/2.0	2,280 (+7%)	15mo	$325,000	$143	64
25981 Liberation Rd	0.02mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,849 (-13%)	8mo	$279,990	$151	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-67,460
• Equity at exit: $44,617

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-83,078
• Equity at exit: $25,873

Cash invested: $83,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,569
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,489/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,618

Max offer price $256,059

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,809
• Closing costs: $8,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10659 Lost Maples Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	21d	1	0.64mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,765	$1.42	1d	1	0.70mi
25432 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	19d	1	0.90mi
10487 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	21d	1	0.92mi
25419 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,099	$1.26	2d	1	0.93mi
10457 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	24d	1	0.96mi
10410 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	24d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $269,990 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Welcome to The Sabine! This two-story home is ready for anything with its great layout and modern touches. On the main floor, you'll find an open concept family and kitchen area as well as a guest room and bathroom. The primary suite is also on the main floor and has a large walk-in closet. Upstairs, there are two more bedrooms and additional bathroom plus a loft and a study/flex space. Make it your own with The Sabine's flexible floor plan. From additional garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The Sabine your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

16. 2026-04-03
    listed $289,990 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Welcome to The Sabine! This two-story home is ready for anything with its great layout and modern touches. On the main floor, you'll find an open concept family and kitchen area as well as a guest room and bathroom. The primary suite is also on the main floor and has a large walk-in closet. Upstairs, there are two more bedrooms and additional bathroom plus a loft and a study/flex space. Make it your own with The Sabine's flexible floor plan. From additional garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The Sabine your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,762
• − Property taxes: −$4,489
• − Insurance: −$1,496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − Depreciation: −$8,705
• Taxable loss: −$8,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,130
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a good layout and modern touches. It's ready for immediate move-in and offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental value with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters.
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Listed $289,990 Zillow