611 Walnut Branch Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$330,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2022 7,339 sqft lot Est $310k · 6% over $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful Barbers Hill ISD home! 4 bed, 2 bath property boasts a 2-car garage on a cul de sac street. The open layout includes a dining room, kitchen, and living areas, perfect for entertaining. Upgrades like exterior soffit lighting, stone and brick elevation, and a covered brick patio enhance curb appeal. Fresh paint throughout living areas makes it move-in ready. Don't miss the opportunity to own this well-maintained home with a new shed included!

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Cul de sac street
• Dining room

Tags

• CUL DE SAC STREET
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• LIVING AREAS
• EXTERIOR SOFFIT LIGHTING
• STONE AND BRICK ELEVATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Prestige Association Management; Annual association fee of $735; Community playground; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2022; Concrete road access; Subdivision setting; Side yard; Pond on lot
• Construction: Brick, cement siding and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered porch; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fence; Shed(s); Storage; Storm/security shutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Instant hot water
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $265,215 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14603 Rain Tree Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-1%)	2mo	$308,000	$169	89
14923 Spring Forest Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-1%)	2mo	$299,000	$163	78
218 San Marcos Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-6%)	1mo	$290,000	$168	70
6714 Augusta Greens Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (-3%)	2mo	$324,990	$182	69
7106 Thomas James Ct	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-4%)	1mo	$297,690	$168	67
510 Louis Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+5%)	2mo	$303,440	$157	65
6818 Bens Lndg	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-11%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	59
6703 Alejandro Pl	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,055 (+11%)	0mo	$341,580	$166	58
6922 Bens Lndg	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-11%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	55
155 Horn Ct	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,052 (+11%)	2mo	$255,000	$124	52
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-14%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	52
6830 Bens Lndg	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-14%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-67,447
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-73,315
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,852/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,954

Max offer price $287,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-51	-5% $-145	+0% $-238	+5% $-332	+10% $-425
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-343	+0% $-238	+5% $-133	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-154	base $-238	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	2d	1	0.24mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	45d	1	0.41mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	0.70mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	25d	1	0.87mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	25d	1	0.89mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	25d	1	1.27mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 470-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $330,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,852 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,039 · $503/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,187/yr (+$99/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,852
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,546
• − Management: −$2,546
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$8,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,061
• After-tax cash flow: $-798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $330,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+69.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,852 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.