590 Lee St · Quail Creek, TX 77905

$124,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · Manufactured public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2002 0.45 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home situated on nearly half an acre with mature trees, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to town. With over 2,000 square feet of living space, this home features an open concept floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. The private primary suite is a relaxing retreat, complete with a walk-in closet, garden tub, and separate shower. Large kitchen space with breakfast area, island, and ample storage. The separate dining area would also make a great office space. If you're looking for space, comfort, and a quiet setting without sacrificing convenience, this home is a must-see!

Key facts

• Expansive backyard
• Outdoor gatherings
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR GATHERINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.1% in Quail Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#476 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.70%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $8,922
• Equity at exit: $18,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $45,348
• Equity at exit: $10,807

Cash invested: $34,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77905

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,474/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $124,990

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,248
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,990 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,990 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,990 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,990 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,990 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,990 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,990 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,990 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,990 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,990 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,990 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,990 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,990 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,990 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,990 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $124,990 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home situated on nearly half an acre with mature trees, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to town. With over 2,000 square feet of living space, this home features an open concept floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. The private primary suite is a relaxing retreat, complete with a walk-in closet, garden tub, and separate shower. Large kitchen space with breakfast area, island, and ample storage. The separate dining area would also make a great office space. If you're looking for space, comfort, and a quiet setting without sacrificing convenience, this home is a must-see!

18. 2026-04-08
    price $129,990 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home situated on nearly half an acre with mature trees, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to town. With over 2,000 square feet of living space, this home features an open concept floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. The private primary suite is a relaxing retreat, complete with a walk-in closet, garden tub, and separate shower. Large kitchen space with breakfast area, island, and ample storage. The separate dining area would also make a great office space. If you're looking for space, comfort, and a quiet setting without sacrificing convenience, this home is a must-see!

19. 2026-02-06
    listed $139,990 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home situated on nearly half an acre with mature trees, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to town. With over 2,000 square feet of living space, this home features an open concept floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. The private primary suite is a relaxing retreat, complete with a walk-in closet, garden tub, and separate shower. Large kitchen space with breakfast area, island, and ample storage. The separate dining area would also make a great office space. If you're looking for space, comfort, and a quiet setting without sacrificing convenience, this home is a must-see!

20. 2026-01-13
    historical
21. 2025-12-23
    price $144,900
22. 2025-12-01
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,474 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,287 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 55.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,001
• − Property taxes: −$1,474
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$889
• After-tax cash flow: $4,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quail Creek

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #9560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,346

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.60%
• Current HPI: 139.4036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $124,990 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $129,990 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $139,990 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $144,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $149,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+39.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,474 · +485.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.