22026 Vernazza Bend Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

$315,000

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,349 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,383 sqft lot 2-car garage $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kingston is a spacious two-story home in Cypress Green offering 6 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 2,349 square feet, and a 2-car garage. This open-concept floorplan features a large family room, dining area, and island kitchen with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry. The private first-floor primary suite includes an oversized shower and walk-in closet, while five secondary bedrooms upstairs provide exceptional flexibility. Additional features include a covered patio, sprinkler system, tankless water heater, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and D. R. Horton's Smart Home package.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Island kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

🏗️ New construction. The $315,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $381,758.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Hockley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,085 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,758
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -16.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19067 Cetara Villa Dr	0.39mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (+8%)	5mo	$359,990	$143	60
21903 Messina Spgs	0.16mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+16%)	1mo	$369,000	$135	59
20023 Sedona Park Dr	0.70mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (+8%)	8mo	$399,990	$158	43
21642 Carbonari Dr	0.79mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,637 (+12%)	0mo	$341,990	$130	37
21611 Carbonari Dr	0.77mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,637 (+12%)	2mo	$362,990	$138	36
21619 Carbonari Dr	0.77mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,637 (+12%)	2mo	$364,990	$138	36
22831 Primrose Wind Ln	1.00mi	5/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (-20%)	1mo	$283,990	$150	34
19014 Foxface Peak Dr	1.11mi	5/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (-20%)	2mo	$279,990	$148	34
18719 Hawthorn Stem Dr	1.05mi	5/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (-20%)	4mo	$281,990	$149	32
18703 Hawthorn Stem Dr	1.05mi	5/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (-20%)	4mo	$281,990	$149	31
18706 Sunset Horizon Dr	1.00mi	5/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (-20%)	6mo	$285,990	$151	30
18622 Sunset Horizon Dr	1.01mi	5/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (-20%)	7mo	$290,890	$154	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-97,589
• Equity at exit: $56,921

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-153,066
• Equity at exit: $33,007

Cash invested: $106,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $340,990 ($142/sqft)
• Median days on market: 139 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,002
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$477 /mo · $5,726/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,510

Max offer price $320,076

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-162	-5% $-294	+0% $-426	+5% $-558	+10% $-690
Rent	-10% $-661	-5% $-544	+0% $-426	+5% $-309	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-329	base $-426	+0.5pp $-525	+1.0pp $-626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,440
• Closing costs: $11,453
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20722 Nala Bear Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,100	$0.81	37d	1	1.17mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$3,070	$1.50	0d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Real ManageAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorBuilt by DR Horton
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchPrivate yardSprinkler/irrigation systemBack yard fencingSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeMicrowaveTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $135/mo · $1,620/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $315,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $315,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $315,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $315,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $315,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $315,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $315,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $315,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $315,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $315,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $315,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $315,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $315,000 Active 7 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $315,000 Active 6 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $315,000 Active 5 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $315,000 Active 4 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $315,000 Active 3 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $315,000 Active 2 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    pricedays on marketlisting id $315,000 Active 1 DOM
24. 2026-06-15
    days on market $317,991 Active 83 DOM
25. 2026-06-13
    remarks 699-char remark
26. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on marketlisting id $317,991 Active 81 DOM
27. 2026-06-09
    days on market $317,990 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-06-08
    days on market $317,990 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-06-07
    days on market $317,990 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-06-04
    days on market $317,990 Active 83 DOM
31. 2026-06-03
    days on market $317,990 Active 82 DOM
32. 2026-06-02
    days on market $317,990 Active 81 DOM
33. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,990 Active 80 DOM
34. 2026-05-31
    days on market $317,990 Active 79 DOM
35. 2026-05-07
    price $317,991 1246-char remark
36. 2026-03-24
    price $317,990 535-char remark
37. 2026-03-24
    listed $317,990 Active 1246-char remark
38. 2026-03-16
    price $313,990 535-char remark
39. 2026-03-13
    listed $342,990 Active 535-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,384
• − Property taxes: −$5,726
• − Insurance: −$1,909
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,852
• − Management: −$2,852
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$11,106
• Taxable loss: −$11,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout and is located in a desirable community with amenities like a pool and playground. The property is move-in ready and would benefit from some minor updates to enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls and adding some decorative elements to the kitchen island. — Fresh paint and decor can enhance the home's appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal. — A well-maintained yard can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features to the kitchen and bathrooms. — Smart home features can improve convenience and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Real ManageAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorBuilt by DR Horton
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchPrivate yardSprinkler/irrigation systemBack yard fencingSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeMicrowaveTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-09 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $317,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $313,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $342,990 HARMLS