3826 Drexel Dr · Toledo, OH 43612

$119,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1917 5,900 sqft lot Est $172k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS WEST SIDE 4 BED/1.5 BATH WITH HUGE ROOMS & UPDATED FLOORS. FRESH PAINT. 1ST FLOOR MASTER WITH WALK-IN CLOSET. FULL BASEMENT WITH 1/2 BATH. MAIN WATER LINE RECENTLY REPLACED WITH 20 YEAR GUARANTEE.

Key facts

• 5,900 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1917

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; No attached units; No common walls
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Combination foundation; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed porch; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Bedroom on main level; Bedrooms on upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Double vanity; Dual closets; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whittier Elementary School (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,584 statewide, top 95%, 509 students, 0% FRL); Start High School (math 11% / reading 33%, grade F, #672 of 781 statewide, top 86%, 1,242 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 72% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.52%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,988
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3909 Lockwood Ave	0.14mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (-7%)	20mo	$205,000	$98	56
618 W Sylvania Ave	0.52mi	5/2.5	2,391 (+6%)	12mo	$187,000	$78	50
4202 N Haven Ave	0.39mi	5/1.0	1,959 (-13%)	24mo	$92,000	$47	39
4104 Willys Pkwy	0.38mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,960 (-13%)	19mo	$180,000	$92	37
4114 Vermaas Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,930 (-15%)	10mo	$74,500	$39	34
4148 Carthage Rd	0.47mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,932 (-15%)	18mo	$139,900	$72	32
4030 Westway St	0.53mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,938 (-14%)	21mo	$147,000	$76	29
4510 Eastway St	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,940 (-14%)	3mo	$170,000	$88	26
4140 Burnham Ave	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,986 (-12%)	22mo	$135,000	$68	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $16,741
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $76,491
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43612

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,397/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,000

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 297-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $119,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,397 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 16.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,397
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $4,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $4,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,480
• Household income: $50,728
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1203.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 23% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.05%
• Current HPI: 235.5389
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.01%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+213.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $119,000 NORIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $108,000 NORIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $35,000 NORIS
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $108,000 NORIS
• 2022-02-24 Pending — NORIS
• 2022-02-16 Contingent — NORIS
• 2022-02-01 Listed $109,900 NORIS
• 2021-11-04 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2021-09-15 Price Changed $106,900 NORIS
• 2021-09-02 Relisted — NORIS
• 2021-08-10 Contingent — NORIS
• 2021-08-04 Listed $109,900 NORIS
• 2021-07-22 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2021-07-08 Listed $125,000 NORIS
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2021-04-07 Listed $88,900 NORIS
• 2021-03-01 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2021-02-01 Listed $81,000 NORIS
• 2021-01-30 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2020-07-19 Listed $81,000 NORIS
• 2018-11-26 Sold (MLS) $35,000 NORIS
• 2018-07-12 Listed $42,500 NORIS
• 1992-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $51,250 Public Records
• 1979-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,397 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.