10120 Bethlehem Ct · Waco, TX 76708

$290,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily · 213 Days on market

Built 2025 $180/sqft · 15% below area Est $343k · 15% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! Our most popular floor plan! This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is known for its intelligent use of space and now features an even more open living area. The large kitchen granite-topped island opens up to your living room to provide a cozy flow throughout the home. Your dining room features the most charming front window you'll ever see, which is accented by your gorgeous front elevation. Featuring large walk-in closets, luxury flooring, and volume ceilings - the 1613 certainly delivers when it comes to affordable luxury.

Key facts

• Volume ceilings
• Luxury flooring
• Open living area

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LUXURY FLOORING
• VOLUME CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,253 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,368
• List price: $290,900
• Delta: -15.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10212 Neptune Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-12%)	1mo	$254,180	$180	72
5500 Black Horse	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+2%)	10mo	$325,000	$198	69
9428 Centennial Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-0%)	10mo	$275,000	$171	66
5813 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-3%)	6mo	$301,065	$192	65
5613 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-6%)	5mo	$300,735	$199	64
10608 Lone Star Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-2%)	2mo	$285,000	$179	61
10601 T Bury Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,683 (+4%)	7mo	$295,000	$175	60
5807 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+10%)	6mo	$322,090	$181	57
10517 Rayburn Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,851 (+15%)	6mo	$349,900	$189	56
5501 Stillhouse Holw	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,765 (+9%)	8mo	$325,000	$184	56
10421 T Bury Ln	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,779 (+10%)	10mo	$365,000	$205	53
10616 Whitney Trce	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,795 (+11%)	4mo	$329,999	$184	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-70,778
• Equity at exit: $43,374

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-108,614
• Equity at exit: $25,152

Cash invested: $81,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,364/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,545

Max offer price $251,781

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-170	+0% $-270	+5% $-371	+10% $-471
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-357	+0% $-270	+5% $-183	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-196	base $-270	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,725
• Closing costs: $8,727
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	23d	1	0.17mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	15d	1	0.44mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	45d	1	0.76mi
9900 China Spring Rd Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,405	$1.47	15d	1	1.20mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	15d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $290,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,900 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,900 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,900 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,900 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,900 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,900 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,900 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,900 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,900 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,900 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,900 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,900 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,900 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,900 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $290,900 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! Our most popular floor plan! This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is known for its intelligent use of space and now features an even more open living area. The large kitchen granite-topped island opens up to your living room to provide a cozy flow throughout the home. Your dining room features the most charming front window you'll ever see, which is accented by your gorgeous front elevation. Featuring large walk-in closets, luxury flooring, and volume ceilings - the 1613 certainly delivers when it comes to affordable luxury.

17. 2026-05-13
    price $291,900 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! Our most popular floor plan! This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is known for its intelligent use of space and now features an even more open living area. The large kitchen granite-topped island opens up to your living room to provide a cozy flow throughout the home. Your dining room features the most charming front window you'll ever see, which is accented by your gorgeous front elevation. Featuring large walk-in closets, luxury flooring, and volume ceilings - the 1613 certainly delivers when it comes to affordable luxury.

18. 2026-02-25
    price $290,900 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! Our most popular floor plan! This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is known for its intelligent use of space and now features an even more open living area. The large kitchen granite-topped island opens up to your living room to provide a cozy flow throughout the home. Your dining room features the most charming front window you'll ever see, which is accented by your gorgeous front elevation. Featuring large walk-in closets, luxury flooring, and volume ceilings - the 1613 certainly delivers when it comes to affordable luxury.

19. 2026-01-21
    price $309,900 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! Our most popular floor plan! This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is known for its intelligent use of space and now features an even more open living area. The large kitchen granite-topped island opens up to your living room to provide a cozy flow throughout the home. Your dining room features the most charming front window you'll ever see, which is accented by your gorgeous front elevation. Featuring large walk-in closets, luxury flooring, and volume ceilings - the 1613 certainly delivers when it comes to affordable luxury.

20. 2025-11-22
    price $309,400 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! Our most popular floor plan! This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is known for its intelligent use of space and now features an even more open living area. The large kitchen granite-topped island opens up to your living room to provide a cozy flow throughout the home. Your dining room features the most charming front window you'll ever see, which is accented by your gorgeous front elevation. Featuring large walk-in closets, luxury flooring, and volume ceilings - the 1613 certainly delivers when it comes to affordable luxury.

21. 2025-11-20
    listed $308,400 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! Our most popular floor plan! This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is known for its intelligent use of space and now features an even more open living area. The large kitchen granite-topped island opens up to your living room to provide a cozy flow throughout the home. Your dining room features the most charming front window you'll ever see, which is accented by your gorgeous front elevation. Featuring large walk-in closets, luxury flooring, and volume ceilings - the 1613 certainly delivers when it comes to affordable luxury.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,295
• − Property taxes: −$4,364
• − Insurance: −$1,454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$8,463
• Taxable loss: −$8,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $290,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $291,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $290,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $309,400 Zillow
• 2025-11-20 Listed $308,400 Zillow