Bayshore w/ Rear Porch Plan · Bradenton, FL 34222

$204,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,669 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active, and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a rare opportunity for you with expansive lake views, open floor plan 2026 home, (2-bedroom, 2-bath) for sale featuring 1,669 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space. Located in Ellenton FL, this abode offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and upgraded appliances. The island kitchen boasts an impressive amount of countertop space and storage, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious owner's suite offers a peaceful ret

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Lake views
• Dual vanities

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $201,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan; Single-story (plan name indicates layout)
• Construction: Built as part of the Bayshore plan
• Exterior features: Rear porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (total)
• Interior features: Plan home — Bayshore with rear porch

🏗️ New construction. The $204,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $248,681.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,224 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,681
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Whipporwill Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,606 (-4%)	2mo	$150,000	$93	74
85 Meadow Cir	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	11mo	$241,000	$149	71
165 Nightingale Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,720 (+3%)	7mo	$290,000	$169	69
181 Nightingale Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-3%)	6mo	$190,000	$117	64
166 Nightingale Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-6%)	12mo	$187,000	$119	55
3445 71st Ave E	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,485 (-11%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,183
• Equity at exit: $37,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-49,869
• Equity at exit: $21,501

Cash invested: $69,631 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,304
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,730/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,175

Max offer price $232,966

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,170
• Closing costs: $7,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	3d	1	0.50mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	1d	67	0.76mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	0.76mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	3d	1	0.79mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	21d	1	0.94mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	3d	1	1.00mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	14d	1	1.02mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	23d	1	1.05mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	23d	1	1.22mi
1143 Riverscape St Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$6,500	$3.72	14d	1	1.28mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	3d	15	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,800 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,800 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,800 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,800 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,800 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,800 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,800 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,800 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,800 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $204,800 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,800 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,800 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,800 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,800 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,930
• − Property taxes: −$3,730
• − Insurance: −$1,243
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$7,234
• Taxable loss: −$5,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B