St. Thomas II Plan · Ellenton, FL 34219

$254,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,666 sqft · Townhouse · 558 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Garage
• Listed 558 days

Tags

• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address city: Parrish, FL (street shown as plan name)
• Financial info: List price provided (details omitted per instructions)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered garage space; 1 parking space total
• Home design: New construction plan: St. Thomas II; Plan inventory type
• Construction: New construction (model/plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1666 (interior square footage provided separately)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (model plan: St. Thomas II)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not provided)

🏗️ New construction. The $254,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $348,194.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 558 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 558 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,194
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9144 Gulf Haven Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	3mo	$299,990	$166	63
9230 Gulf Haven Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	2mo	$325,000	$180	62
9141 Gulf Haven Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	3mo	$311,990	$173	62
7566 Sea Oak Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	1mo	$334,000	$185	60
7618 Sea Oak Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	3mo	$309,990	$172	59
9246 Gulf Haven Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	6mo	$310,000	$172	58
7574 Sea Oak Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	1mo	$329,990	$230	51
9148 Gulf Haven Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	7mo	$319,990	$223	50
9136 Gulf Haven Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	8mo	$310,000	$216	50
7626 Sea Oak Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	5mo	$299,990	$209	48
9238 Gulf Haven Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	9mo	$340,000	$237	48
7610 Sea Oak Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	5mo	$305,000	$213	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-82,036
• Equity at exit: $51,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-124,642
• Equity at exit: $30,105

Cash invested: $97,494 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,693 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,826
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,223/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,046

Max offer price $307,838

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-159	+0% $-279	+5% $-399	+10% $-520
Rent	-10% $-492	-5% $-385	+0% $-279	+5% $-173	+10% $-66
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-190	base $-279	+0.5pp $-369	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,048
• Closing costs: $10,446
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.06mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	24d	1	0.21mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	24d	1	0.24mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.30mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,056	$1.30	2d	32	0.34mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	15d	1	0.47mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	22d	1	0.56mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	22d	1	0.56mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	2d	24	0.86mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	24d	1	0.90mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	4d	1	0.90mi
10504 Spring Tide Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$2,500	$1.63	4d	1	0.99mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	4d	1	1.08mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	4d	1	1.24mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	11d	1	1.24mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 558 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 557 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 556 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 555 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 553 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $254,900 Active 552 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $252,900 Active 550 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,900 Active 549 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,900 Active 548 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $252,900 Active 547 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,900 Active 543 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $252,900 Active 542 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,900 Active 541 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,900 Active 540 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,504
• − Property taxes: −$5,223
• − Insurance: −$1,741
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − Depreciation: −$10,129
• Taxable loss: −$9,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B