873 Mussel Shoals Ave · Shasta Lake, CA 96019

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1978 8,276 sqft lot $158/sqft · 43% below area Est $281k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks! Lovely 1008 sqft fixer offers a new roof and exterior paint! Bonus storage shed in the back, central heat and air, dual pane windows, high ceilings. Great price for as-is, where is.

Key facts

• Central heat
• Exterior paint
• Storage shed

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• EXTERIOR PAINT
• STORAGE SHED
• CENTRAL HEAT
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• HIGH CEILINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Slab foundation; Built with composition roofing
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Outbuilding on the property; City lot; mostly level with some rolling slope; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher included; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in Shasta Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#399 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,235 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,938
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -43.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1140 Eugene Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,058 (+5%)	1mo	$299,900	$283	77
1235 Washington Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	952 (-6%)	13mo	$279,000	$293	68
5157 Front St	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	15mo	$243,000	$243	62
941 Mussel Shoals Ave	0.06mi	2/1.0	874 (-13%)	16mo	$263,000	$301	62
1945 Grand Coulee Blvd	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	5mo	$70,000	$70	60
5085 Chico St	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,046 (+4%)	14mo	$275,000	$263	59
4356 Red Bluff St	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,030 (+2%)	15mo	$244,900	$238	58
1432 Mussel Shoals Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,080 (+7%)	15mo	$189,000	$175	57
4239 Main St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-1%)	2mo	$292,000	$292	54
1316 Grand River Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,092 (+8%)	10mo	$240,000	$220	54
5038 Main St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (+14%)	2mo	$309,000	$269	46
5230 Front St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,110 (+10%)	12mo	$275,000	$248	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,392
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,180
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96019

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,294/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1707 Grand Coulee Blvd Unit B Shasta Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,459	$1.82	13d	1	0.57mi
4680 Meade St Shasta Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	43d	1	0.63mi
1833 Oregon St Shasta Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,850	$1.43	13d	1	0.65mi
1840 Grand Coulee Blvd Shasta Lake, CA	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	43d	1	0.69mi
4325 Fort Peck St Shasta Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	13d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 202-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $159,000 Active 202-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 44 unhealthy d/yr today · 46 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,294
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$275
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$66
• After-tax cash flow: $2,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shasta Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #399
• US rank: #13546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shasta Lake, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 10,350
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 10,350
• Household income: $67,446
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 260.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.66%
• Current HPI: 170.6085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-05-12 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-05-06 Listed $159,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,294 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.