Pedernales Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$274,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

Key facts

• Two bathroom
• Open-concept kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FOUR BEDROOM
• TWO BATHROOM
• SECLUDED WORK FROM HOME SPACE
• SIZABLE WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,078.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,633 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.24%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,078
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -7.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1009 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-5%)	1mo	$254,990	$149	82
813 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-7%)	0mo	$260,000	$155	80
1013 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-7%)	1mo	$258,290	$154	78
429 Branch Oak Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,877 (+4%)	1mo	$285,000	$152	77
622 Cherry Tree Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+12%)	1mo	$305,900	$152	73
1090 Garnet Star Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,732 (-4%)	0mo	$289,990	$167	68
1085 Garnet Star Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,872 (+4%)	2mo	$306,990	$164	67
765 Camden Valley Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,941 (+8%)	0mo	$285,900	$147	66
432 Pecan Landing Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,877 (+4%)	0mo	$299,999	$160	58
828 Grassy Knoll Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,070 (+15%)	2mo	$260,000	$126	54
1081 Garnet Star Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (-13%)	1mo	$289,990	$184	48
508 Forest Village Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,042 (+13%)	0mo	$275,000	$135	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-64,698
• Equity at exit: $44,295

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-71,346
• Equity at exit: $25,686

Cash invested: $83,182 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 118 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,740 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,456/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,599

Max offer price $254,501

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-89	-5% $-192	+0% $-294	+5% $-397	+10% $-500
Rent	-10% $-470	-5% $-382	+0% $-294	+5% $-206	+10% $-118
Rate	-1.0pp $-145	-0.5pp $-219	base $-294	+0.5pp $-371	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,270
• Closing costs: $8,912
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	69d	1	0.58mi
6218 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,472	$1.05	0d	1	1.47mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	93d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $274,990 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $274,990 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $274,990 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $274,990 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $274,990 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $274,990 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $274,990 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $274,990 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $274,990 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $274,990 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $274,990 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $274,990 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $274,990 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $274,990 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $274,990 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $274,990 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $274,990 Active 130 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $274,990 Active 129 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $274,990 Active 128 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $274,990 Active 127 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $274,990 Active 126 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $274,990 Active 125 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $274,990 Active 124 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $274,990 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $274,990 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $274,990 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $274,990 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $274,990 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $274,990 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $274,990 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $274,990 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $274,990 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $274,990 Active 109 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $274,990 Active 107 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $274,990 Active 106 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $274,990 Active 103 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $274,990 Active 102 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $274,990 Active 101 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $274,990 Active 100 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $274,990 Active 98 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $274,990 Active 97 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $274,990 Active 94 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,990 Active 93 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,990 Active 92 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 89 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 88 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,641
• − Property taxes: −$4,456
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − Depreciation: −$8,642
• Taxable loss: −$8,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers ample space and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hitchcock Pri Middle Crosby Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Hitchcock H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Listed $267,990 Zillow