Sentosa Plan · San Antonio, TX 78264

$205,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 20902 Blackberry Grv, San Antonio, TX 78264
• Financial info: List price $205,999
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: New construction plan: Sentosa
• Construction:
• Exterior features: 1,575 living area

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. The $205,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $217,854.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $151,115 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.13%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,854
• List price: $205,999
• Delta: -5.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20827 Pinon Grv	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	5mo	$201,999	$128	93
20922 Sumac Grv	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	2mo	$200,999	$128	92
20918 Sumac Grv	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$197,999	$124	91
20930 Sumac Grv	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$197,999	$124	90
21034 Sumac Grv	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	4mo	$195,999	$122	88
21002 Sumac Grv	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	3mo	$200,999	$126	87
20723 Maple Grv	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	3mo	$213,999	$136	84
3605 Mccrae Xing	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-8%)	3mo	$185,000	$128	77
3635 Strawberry	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (-8%)	6mo	$244,000	$169	73
20830 Pinon Grv	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	5mo	$208,999	$149	71
20902 Sumac Grv	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$195,999	$140	70
20823 Pinon Grv	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	6mo	$200,999	$143	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $17,504
• Equity at exit: $109,757

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $77,036
• Equity at exit: $178,961

Cash invested: $60,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,142
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,268/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,906

Max offer price $172,746

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,463
• Closing costs: $6,536
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20823 Pinon Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,650	$1.18	43d	1	0.08mi
20414 Deets Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,750	$0.94	3d	1	0.34mi
20335 Campbellton Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,450	$1.04	43d	1	0.72mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	2d	1	0.76mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	23d	1	0.76mi
20448 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	23d	1	0.99mi
20642 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	21d	1	1.01mi
20447 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,320	$1.07	23d	1	1.02mi
20622 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,550	$1.01	43d	1	1.04mi
20618 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,450	$1.23	4d	1	1.04mi
2906 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,550	$1.14	43d	1	1.07mi
3008 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,195	$1.01	2d	1	1.07mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,400	$1.16	16d	1	1.14mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,350	$1.12	43d	1	1.14mi
20511 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	17d	1	1.16mi
2807 Ruby Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,400	$1.10	23d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,999 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,999 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,999 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,999 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,999 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,999 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,999 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,999 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,999 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,999 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,999 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,999 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,999 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,999 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $207,999 377-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $210,999 Active 377-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,268
• − Insurance: −$1,089
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$6,338
• Taxable loss: −$7,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B