443 Royal Crest Cir · Rancho Cordova, CA 95670

$94,888

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1983 $76/sqft · 16% below area Est $113k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attractive mobile home clean includes built in microwave, refrigerator, washer and dryer. Kitchen has laminate flooring. Large laundry room with space for freezer. This double wide unit is available for quick move in. Quiet and well-maintained park with many highlights. Newly painted.

Key facts

• Built in microwave
• Large laundry room
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• BUILT IN MICROWAVE
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 223 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $95k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,501 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.26%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,672
• List price: $94,888
• Delta: -15.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
396 Ravine Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+3%)	1mo	$115,000	$90	93
311 Sunny Hills Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	5mo	$99,900	$83	82
192 Whispering Pines Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	11mo	$65,000	$52	76
55 Sheri Ridge Way	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,212 (-3%)	8mo	$129,900	$107	71
191 Whispering Pines Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	66
131 Royal Wood Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,095 (-12%)	3mo	$140,000	$128	64
386 Crystal View Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	14mo	$112,500	$80	64
172 Rolling River Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,160 (-7%)	10mo	$105,000	$91	58
146 Gumtree Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	10mo	$126,000	$115	55
181 Whispering Pines Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	14mo	$109,000	$80	54
66 Pineacre Ln	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	8mo	$126,900	$118	52
126 Royalwood Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-14%)	14mo	$110,000	$102	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $47,032
• Equity at exit: $14,148

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $110,107
• Equity at exit: $8,204

Cash invested: $26,569 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95670

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $259/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $707

Max offer price $94,888

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,722
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2437 Rashawn Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,900	$1.96	7d	1	0.21mi
11260 Point East Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	615	$1,985	$3.23	1d	29	0.23mi
11070 Hirschfeld Way Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,880	$2.35	2d	4	0.29mi
2330 Vehicle Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,225	$2.63	2d	1	0.35mi
2330 Vehicle Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,230	$2.63	20d	9	0.35mi
11150 Trinity River Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1091	$1,850	$1.69	43d	2	0.60mi
11112 Congo River Ct Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,750	$1.95	17d	1	0.62mi
11150 Trinity River Dr #79 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	941	$1,980	$2.10	23d	1	0.64mi
2220 Cemo Cir Gold River, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1203	$2,499	$2.08	1d	7	0.69mi
10922 Scotsman Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	17d	1	0.75mi
10890 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,499	$1.62	23d	3	0.76mi
10918 Scotsman Way Unit 10918 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1183	$1,795	$1.52	43d	1	0.77mi
2253 Zinfandel Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,200	$1.83	43d	1	0.79mi
2652 Los Nogales Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	43d	1	0.82mi
10870 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	2d	1	0.83mi
2657 McGregor Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,595	$1.58	43d	1	0.84mi
10780 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,515	$1.99	2d	7	0.94mi
1990 Benita Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$2,300	$2.40	43d	1	0.95mi
10680 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,889	$2.59	2d	11	1.13mi
2751 Don Juan Dr Apt 16 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$1,875	$1.95	43d	1	1.19mi
2730 Don Juan Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	43d	2	1.25mi
2720 Riesling Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,595	$1.90	21d	1	1.37mi
2669 Chassella Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	7d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2008-09-26
   soldstatus $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $259 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$462/yr (+$38/mo · 178.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,315
• − Property taxes: −$259
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$2,760
• Taxable income: $11,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,801
• After-tax cash flow: $9,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 58,819
• Household income: $89,484
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2389.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 12% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.38%
• Current HPI: 300.0788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2008-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $259 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.