3216 N Dustin Ave · Farmington, NM 87401

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,803 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1970 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR ALERT: This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,803 square feet of living space and is ready for its next chapter. With a spacious layout and plenty of potential, this property could be a great fit for buyers looking to customize a home to their own taste or investors seeking their next project. The home and surrounding property currently contain a substantial amount of personal property and miscellaneous items. Buyers are encouraged to view the property in person to fully appreciate its potential and condition. The seller is offering the property AS-IS, WHERE-IS and will make no repairs or pay for inspections. Any inspections desired by the buyer will be at the buyer's expense. If you

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Stucco exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Chain link fencing; Metal roof; Lot in a residential zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Has cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#38 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Farmington Municipal Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #23 of 95 in NM (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ladera Del Norte Elementary (543 students, 40% FRL); Hermosa Middle School (622 students, 47% FRL); Farmington High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #18 of 110 statewide, top 17%, 1,824 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+37 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Farmington Municipal Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $159,499 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.58%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,108
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $23,690
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87401

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $918/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $269	+0% $221	+5% $173	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $158	+0% $221	+5% $284	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $264	base $221	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $170,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-14
   listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $918 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$442/yr (+$37/mo · 48.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$918
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500990
• Math proficiency: 23% —
• Reading proficiency: 43% —
• Median HH income: $51,365
• Composite: 31.5/100
• National rank: #11178
• State rank: #23 of 95 in NM

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #11926

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmington, NM
• County: San Juan County · 45,229 people
• City population: 45,229
• Metro: Farmington, NM
• Population (ZIP): 45,229
• Household income: $61,886
• Rent vs Own: 35.2% rent · 64.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Native American 32% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.62%
• Current HPI: 170.162
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Farmington, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $170,000 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $918 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.