1106 Milner Dr W · Lakeland, FL 33810

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1980 8,228 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors—here’s your next value-add opportunity with upside potential. This single-family residence already has a tenant in place and would love to stay, making it an attractive option for investors looking to secure an income-producing property with room to improve and add value over time. Large level flat lot. Major update already completed with a new roof installed October 2023. The home offers a functional layout featuring a front living room, three bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. The nicely sized kitchen opens to a dedicated dining area, creating a more desirable flow for everyday living. An interior laundry room adds convenience, while the covered/enclosed o

Key facts

• Level lot
• Usable outdoor space
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LEVEL LOT
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED OUTDOOR STORAGE
• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No association listed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces southeast; Completed condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.19 acre)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio/porch; Chain link and wood fencing; Level, oversized lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $169k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,573
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,229
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,318/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3552 Doreen Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,730	$1.57	23d	1	0.35mi
712 Bryon Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1026	$1,095	$1.07	19d	1	0.50mi
3230 J and J Manor Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1056	$1,700	$1.61	3d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $169,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $173,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $173,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $173,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $173,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $173,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $173,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $200,000 Active
16. 2026-04-02
    soldstatus $105,714
17. 1980-10-01
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,318
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $369
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$88
• After-tax cash flow: $2,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+545.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $105,714 Public Records
• 1980-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,318 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.