91 Cabrillo Blvd · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$290,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1985 5,227 sqft lot Est $309k · 6% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY NICE CLEAN SARASOTA IN THE WEST. COMPLETE APPL. PKG. , ''AS IS''. NEWER CARPET IN DEN LR, DR, NEWER WIND. TRMTS. , THROUGHOUT. WALKING DISTANCE TO CLUBHOUSE. SHOW AND SELL. QUESTIONS CALL LA, 609-971-3072

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Newer water heater
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEWER AIR CONDITIONING UNIT
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Holiday City HOA); Quarterly association fee of $125; HOA amenities include clubhouse, pool, trash service, common area maintenance, snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: SARASOTA; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer included; Dryer included; Window treatments; Gas cooking
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,595/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $290k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,509 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,036
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Redlands Ct	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+3%)	2mo	$280,000	$249	78
125 Rodhos St	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,034 (-5%)	2mo	$270,000	$261	74
83 Cabrillo Blvd	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	2mo	$335,000	$272	71
419 Costa Mesa Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	2mo	$299,000	$243	62
9 Banning Ct	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	2mo	$385,000	$313	61
18 Morongo Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	2mo	$385,000	$313	60
1 Redlands Ct	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	1mo	$349,000	$283	60
373 Costa Mesa Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	0mo	$418,500	$340	56
16 Mirador Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	2mo	$335,000	$272	51
6 Preston Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	0mo	$350,000	$284	50
3 Muirhead St	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	2mo	$385,000	$313	50
1 Miramar Ct	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	1mo	$335,000	$272	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-38,103
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-21,783
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,720/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $222	+0% $140	+5% $58	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $37	+0% $140	+5% $242	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $214	base $140	+0.5pp $65	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	0d	1	0.47mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	0.93mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.12mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	8d	1	1.13mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	0d	1	1.16mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	45d	1	1.17mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	24d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $290,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $299,900 Active 733-char remark
18. 2026-04-17
    status Active
19. 2026-04-17
    price $319,000
20. 2025-11-17
    listed $345,000 Active
21. 1999-04-23
    soldstatus $68,000

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    VERY NICE CLEAN SARASOTA IN THE WEST. COMPLETE APPL. PKG. , ''AS IS''. NEWER CARPET IN DEN LR, DR, NEWER WIND. TRMTS. , THROUGHOUT. WALKING DISTANCE TO CLUBHOUSE. SHOW AND SELL. QUESTIONS CALL LA, 609-971-3072

22. 1999-04-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    VERY NICE CLEAN SARASOTA IN THE WEST. COMPLETE APPL. PKG. , ''AS IS''. NEWER CARPET IN DEN LR, DR, NEWER WIND. TRMTS. , THROUGHOUT. WALKING DISTANCE TO CLUBHOUSE. SHOW AND SELL. QUESTIONS CALL LA, 609-971-3072

23. 1998-11-18
    listed $72,900

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    VERY NICE CLEAN SARASOTA IN THE WEST. COMPLETE APPL. PKG. , ''AS IS''. NEWER CARPET IN DEN LR, DR, NEWER WIND. TRMTS. , THROUGHOUT. WALKING DISTANCE TO CLUBHOUSE. SHOW AND SELL. QUESTIONS CALL LA, 609-971-3072

24. 1982-01-01
    soldstatus $43,490

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,970 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,251/yr (+$188/mo · 82.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$2,720
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$3,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$767
• After-tax cash flow: $2,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+566.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $290,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $319,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $345,000 MOMLS
• 1999-04-23 Sold (MLS) $68,000 MOMLS
• 1999-04-05 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-11-18 Listed $72,900 MOMLS
• 1982-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,490 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,720 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.