108 Cardinal Way · Santa Rosa, CA 95409

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 81 Days on market

Built 1969 Est $188k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully remodeled home in Rincon Valley senior community. 2 bedrooms/2 bathrooms, Extra large Primary bedroom suite with sitting area. Fully remodeled with Travert1en tile in bathrooms , hall and kitchen, fully sheet rocked, Dual pane windows. Separate laundry area with heavy duty washer and dryer. New exterior paint, skirting & earthquake tie downs (2015) central air. Located on the quiet end of the street & features a storage shed. A must see!

Key facts

• Travertine tile
• New exterior paint
• Storage shed

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• TRAVERTINE TILE
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY AREA
• HEAVY DUTY WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $829
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Individual gas meter; Underground utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide
• Construction: Marlette manufacturer; Vinyl skirting
• Exterior features: Located in a senior community; Park name: Rincon Valley Mobile Estates

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Microwave; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; See remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Stone countertops; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry inside unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $879 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.83%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Cardinal Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,120 (0%)	8mo	$220,000	$196	89
111 Cardinal Way	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-11%)	0mo	$120,000	$120	81
187 Blue Jay Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-6%)	11mo	$176,000	$168	77
71 Oriole Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	8mo	$230,000	$218	74
170 Blue Jay Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,037 (-7%)	11mo	$240,000	$231	74
94 Buckwood Pl	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	2mo	$119,000	$110	67
48 Cardinal Way	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+15%)	10mo	$244,000	$189	60
6 Larkspur Pl	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+7%)	2mo	$90,000	$75	59
104 Bluejay Dr #135	0.18mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	16mo	$160,000	$167	54
99 Buckwood Pl	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,060 (-5%)	16mo	$180,000	$170	52
162 Larkspur Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	15mo	$100,000	$80	39
11 Larkspur Pl	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	22mo	$122,500	$98	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $29,094
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $100,142
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95409

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $358/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,340

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 Mission Blvd Unit 1255 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$2,000	$2.06	13d	1	0.19mi
701 Mission Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,995	$2.35	21d	1	0.30mi
4656 Quigg Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,680	$2.82	13d	9	0.30mi
808 Shady Oak Dr Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	13d	1	0.46mi
4145 Shadow Ln Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,893	$3.51	13d	11	0.58mi
6123 Montecito Blvd Unit rh6123Montecito14 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,150	$3.07	21d	1	0.61mi
6233 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,195	$2.93	13d	1	0.66mi
6221 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,145	$2.86	13d	3	0.67mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Unit 05 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	13d	1	0.73mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	23d	1	0.74mi
6401 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,975	$2.37	13d	1	0.78mi
42 Redwood Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1166	$2,700	$2.32	13d	1	0.80mi
6600 Montecito Blvd Unit 49 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,999	$2.67	23d	1	0.85mi
6600 Montecito Blvd Unit 02 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,450	$2.58	21d	1	0.85mi
3732 Ahl Park Ct Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,796	$2.73	13d	7	0.89mi
174 S Boas Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$2,755	$3.53	13d	6	0.93mi
3637 Sonoma Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	1117	$2,599	$2.33	13d	3	0.95mi
695 Summerfield Rd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	719	$2,345	$3.26	13d	1	1.01mi
5145 Parkhurst Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$2,469	$3.29	13d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $170,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $180,000
18. 2026-03-30
    listed $190,000 Active
19. 2026-02-13
    price $199,000
20. 2026-01-27
    price $205,000
21. 2026-01-21
    price $210,000
22. 2026-01-14
    price $215,000
23. 2026-01-05
    price $220,000
24. 2025-12-19
    price $225,000
25. 2025-12-12
    price $227,500
26. 2025-11-28
    price $230,000
27. 2025-11-15
    price $232,000
28. 2025-10-30
    price $234,500
29. 2025-10-19
    price $236,500
30. 2025-08-22
    listed $238,500 Active
31. 2025-07-30
    price $239,500
32. 2025-06-27
    listed $240,000 Active
33. 2021-10-22
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed
34. 2021-09-29
    historical Contingent (No Show)
35. 2021-09-05
    price $145,000
36. 2021-08-13
    price $149,000
37. 2021-08-03
    price $155,000
38. 2021-06-03
    price $159,000
39. 2021-04-30
    price $163,000
40. 2021-03-20
    status Active
41. 2020-09-18
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $358 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$934/yr (+$78/mo · 261.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$358
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $8,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $8,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,616
• Household income: $107,867
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -750.32%
• Current HPI: 226.8795
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+6.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $180,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $190,000 BAREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $199,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $205,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $210,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $215,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $220,000 BAREIS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $225,000 BAREIS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $227,500 BAREIS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $230,000 BAREIS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $232,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $234,500 BAREIS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $236,500 BAREIS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $238,500 BAREIS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $239,500 BAREIS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $240,000 BAREIS
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) $130,000 BAREIS
• 2021-09-29 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2021-09-05 Price Changed $145,000 BAREIS
• 2021-08-13 Price Changed $149,000 BAREIS
• 2021-08-03 Price Changed $155,000 BAREIS
• 2021-06-03 Price Changed $159,000 BAREIS
• 2021-04-30 Price Changed $163,000 BAREIS
• 2021-03-20 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2020-09-18 Listed $169,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $358 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.