16238 W Tapatio Dr · Surprise, AZ 85374

$339,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1997 6,684 sqft lot $265/sqft · 17% below area Est $406k · 17% under $160/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Kiva, furnished with lots of upgrades. HVAC and Hot water heater(2024). The wood flooring in the great room, hallways and bedrooms is a stylish and functional touch. The kitchen is updated with granite countertops, refinished wood cabinetry and updated stainless appliances. The primary bedroom has a bay window for added space and lots of natural light. Step onto the extended covered patio overlooking a beautiful, fully fenced backyard with lots of mature, low maintenance landscaping and a couple of fruit trees. The patio is furnished, including a newer freestanding grill, patio heater for year round use and a decorative stone fountain.

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Attached casita
• Maple cabinets

Tags

• ATTACHED CASITA
• GAS BEEHIVE FIREPLACE
• DECORATIVE TILE DESIGN INLAYS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• SKYLIGHTS
• MAPLE CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $339k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,921 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,031
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -16.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16049 W Quail Creek Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,255 (-2%)	0mo	$344,000	$274	84
15996 W Mesquite Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,278 (0%)	1mo	$399,900	$313	72
16412 W Peppertree Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,310 (+2%)	3mo	$350,000	$267	70
20026 N Siesta Rock Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	2mo	$331,000	$255	68
16023 W Wildflower Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,414 (+11%)	2mo	$340,000	$240	64
20828 N Shadow Mountain Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,298 (+2%)	2mo	$287,000	$221	61
16004 W Verbena Ln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,183 (-7%)	1mo	$360,000	$304	57
16462 W Chuparosa Ln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,178 (-8%)	2mo	$345,000	$293	55
21067 N Sequoia Crest Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,435 (+12%)	2mo	$370,000	$258	45
16917 W Cortaro Point Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,435 (+12%)	1mo	$411,887	$287	43
16115 W Acacia Ct	0.57mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,099 (-14%)	2mo	$284,000	$258	43
16838 W Cortaro Point Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,427 (+12%)	2mo	$370,000	$259	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-77,579
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-115,150
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,539 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,049/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,848

Max offer price $295,943

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-148	+0% $-244	+5% $-340	+10% $-436
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-344	+0% $-244	+5% $-143	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-158	base $-244	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16149 W Quail Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	45d	1	0.24mi
16171 W Wildflower Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,200	$2.50	20d	1	0.36mi
15913 W Clearwater Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1546	$3,000	$1.94	45d	1	0.42mi
16115 W Acacia Ct Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.5	1099	$1,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.55mi
20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1598	$3,200	$2.00	26d	1	0.62mi
16215 W Desert Winds Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1183	$2,800	$2.37	45d	1	0.66mi
16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$4,436	$2.73	16d	1	0.72mi
15619 W Vista Grande Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	45d	1	0.75mi
15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,600	$2.21	45d	1	0.76mi
15707 W Cimarron Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1183	$1,745	$1.48	23d	1	0.88mi
21531 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,595	$0.86	19d	1	0.95mi
15448 W Moonlight Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$4,200	$3.33	45d	1	1.05mi
19352 N Vista Montana Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	14d	1	1.05mi
18277 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1870	$3,500	$1.87	45d	1	1.15mi
16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,875	$1.40	45d	1	1.18mi
16344 W Crater Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1495	$3,200	$2.14	45d	1	1.42mi
15866 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,200	$2.26	45d	1	1.45mi
18651 N Salerno Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,650	$1.40	45d	1	1.45mi
15883 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $339,000 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Charming Kiva, furnished with lots of upgrades. HVAC and Hot water heater(2024). The wood flooring in the great room, hallways and bedrooms is a stylish and functional touch. The kitchen is updated with granite countertops, refinished wood cabinetry and updated stainless appliances. The primary bedroom has a bay window for added space and lots of natural light. Step onto the extended covered patio overlooking a beautiful, fully fenced backyard with lots of mature, low maintenance landscaping and a couple of fruit trees. The patio is furnished, including a newer freestanding grill, patio heater for year round use and a decorative stone fountain.

16. 2026-03-13
    listed $359,000 Active 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Charming Kiva, furnished with lots of upgrades. HVAC and Hot water heater(2024). The wood flooring in the great room, hallways and bedrooms is a stylish and functional touch. The kitchen is updated with granite countertops, refinished wood cabinetry and updated stainless appliances. The primary bedroom has a bay window for added space and lots of natural light. Step onto the extended covered patio overlooking a beautiful, fully fenced backyard with lots of mature, low maintenance landscaping and a couple of fruit trees. The patio is furnished, including a newer freestanding grill, patio heater for year round use and a decorative stone fountain.

17. 2007-05-08
    soldstatus $215,000 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    This Kiva is fully furnished and just waiting for the right owner. The backyard is like an oasis with Shade trees, fountain, cacti and it's fenced. The inside is immaculate. What a buy!

18. 2007-05-08
    soldstatus $215,000

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    This Kiva is fully furnished and just waiting for the right owner. The backyard is like an oasis with Shade trees, fountain, cacti and it's fenced. The inside is immaculate. What a buy!

19. 2007-04-11
    historical 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    This Kiva is fully furnished and just waiting for the right owner. The backyard is like an oasis with Shade trees, fountain, cacti and it's fenced. The inside is immaculate. What a buy!

20. 2007-03-01
    listed $229,000 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    This Kiva is fully furnished and just waiting for the right owner. The backyard is like an oasis with Shade trees, fountain, cacti and it's fenced. The inside is immaculate. What a buy!

21. 2005-03-23
    soldstatus $229,900
22. 2005-03-22
    soldstatus $229,900
23. 2005-02-08
    historical
24. 2005-02-01
    listed $229,900
25. 1998-02-23
    soldstatus $115,188

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,237 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$2,049
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,438
• − Management: −$2,438
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$8,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,141
• After-tax cash flow: $-784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+194.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $339,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $359,000 ARMLS
• 2007-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-08 Sold (MLS) $215,000 ARMLS
• 2007-04-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-03-01 Listed $229,000 ARMLS
• 2005-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $229,900 Public Records
• 2005-03-22 Sold (MLS) $229,900 ARMLS
• 2005-02-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-02-01 Listed $229,900 ARMLS
• 1998-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $115,188 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,049 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.