Pine II Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$219,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home, sweet home. Pine II new construction homes offer a thoughtfully designed layout that combines modern finishes with functional, family-friendly spaces. This charming, spacious home is perfect for first-time homebuyers, growing families, and luxury homebuyers seeking the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Upon entering the front door, you're greeted by a welcoming foyer with a convenient closet, setting the tone for the home's impressive flow. Beyond the foyer, the expansive family room awaits, seamlessly connecting to a spacious combined kitchen and dining area-ideal for hosting family gatherings, dinner parties, or cozy nights in. This open-concept layout ensures you're always in the heart of the action, creating a warm, inviting atmosphere that suits any occasion. The gourmet kitchen is a true centerpiece, featuring stunning granite countertops, a sleek ceramic tile backsplash, and elegant flat-panel birch cabinets. Modern, high-end appliances and designer light fixtures elevate the space, making it perfect for cooking enthusiasts and entertainers. Whether preparing a family meal or entertaining guests, this kitchen has everything you need. Off the main living area, you'll find two generously sized secondary bedrooms, each offering ample closet space, with the third bedroom featuring a walk-in closet. The full secondary bathroom is centrally located for convenience. Just down the hall, a spacious walk-in utility room adds practical storage space, and. ..

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Granite countertops
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOMES
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED LAYOUT
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $219,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $236,415.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $182,789 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,415
• List price: $219,990
• Delta: -6.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21643 Cottage Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	9mo	$214,990	$178	75
21510 Rolling Streams	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	10mo	$229,990	$191	70
21551 Rolling Streams Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	20mo	$204,990	$170	61
21580 Rolling Streams Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	21mo	$199,990	$166	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-50,369
• Equity at exit: $35,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-59,313
• Equity at exit: $20,441

Cash invested: $66,196 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,240
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,546/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,068

Max offer price $208,954

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,104
• Closing costs: $7,092
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	5d	57	0.74mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,990 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2025-04-01
    listed $219,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Home, sweet home. Pine II new construction homes offer a thoughtfully designed layout that combines modern finishes with functional, family-friendly spaces. This charming, spacious home is perfect for first-time homebuyers, growing families, and luxury homebuyers seeking the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Upon entering the front door, you're greeted by a welcoming foyer with a convenient closet, setting the tone for the home's impressive flow. Beyond the foyer, the expansive family room awaits, seamlessly connecting to a spacious combined kitchen and dining area-ideal for hosting family gatherings, dinner parties, or cozy nights in. This open-concept layout ensures you're always in the heart of the action, creating a warm, inviting atmosphere that suits any occasion. The gourmet kitchen is a true centerpiece, featuring stunning granite countertops, a sleek ceramic tile backsplash, and elegant flat-panel birch cabinets. Modern, high-end appliances and designer light fixtures elevate the space, making it perfect for cooking enthusiasts and entertainers. Whether preparing a family meal or entertaining guests, this kitchen has everything you need. Off the main living area, you'll find two generously sized secondary bedrooms, each offering ample closet space, with the third bedroom featuring a walk-in closet. The full secondary bathroom is centrally located for convenience. Just down the hall, a spacious walk-in utility room adds practical storage space, and. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,546
• − Insurance: −$1,182
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$6,878
• Taxable loss: −$6,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,542
• After-tax cash flow: $-736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Pine II Plan home in Splendora, TX is a new construction with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and modern layout perfect for families, with high ROI updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $219,990 Zillow