18 Fath Dr · Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$279,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1965 5,227 sqft lot Est $277k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This fantastic two-family home, located on a quiet street, is one you don’t want to miss! Great investment opportunity in a high-rent area. This sought-after upper/lower is located near shopping and amenities along Union Road, just minutes grocery stores, galleria mall, parks and everything you need! Lower unit features 3 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bath, generous living room, eat in kitchen, and abundant closet space throughout. Upper unit features 2 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bath, generous living room, eat in kitchen, and abundant closet space throughout. Additional highlights include basement with laundry hookups and glass block windows, a two-car detached garage, and a large back

Key facts

• Near shopping
• High rent area
• Two family home

Tags

• TWO FAMILY HOME
• HIGH RENT AREA
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR AMENITIES
• BASEMENT WITH LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• TWO CAR DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($293/yr) — positive. Per door: $12/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cheektowaga-Maryvale Union Free School District (urban): math 67% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #154 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,649/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 991% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $264,900 (5.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,822
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Joseph St	0.32mi	5/2.0	1,638 (0%)	18mo	$291,000	$178	70
59 Northcrest Ave	0.48mi	5/2.5	1,622 (-1%)	7mo	$242,000	$149	68
65 Fath Dr	0.11mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (+14%)	10mo	$315,599	$169	57
119 Zoerb Ave	0.53mi	5/2.0	1,715 (+5%)	20mo	$290,000	$169	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-43,679
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-35,535
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14225

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 17.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,806/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,618

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $104	+0% $24	+5% $-55	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-80	+0% $24	+5% $129	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $96	base $24	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-122

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,648
Total (2 units)			$2,649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
758 S Huth Rd Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2235	$2,800	$1.25	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $279,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,806 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,806 · $484/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$5,806
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,325
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,038
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheektowaga-Maryvale Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618600
• Math proficiency: 67% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $46,537
• Composite: 59.02/100
• National rank: #960
• State rank: #154 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 33,620
• Household income: $67,237
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.26%
• Current HPI: 320.6248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $279,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,806 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.