1678 Avenida Calamar · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$278,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,283 sqft · Land · 73 Days on market

Built 2026 0.46 ac lot $217/sqft · at area comps Est $284k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your private desert retreat at 1678 Avenida Calamar in Rio Rico, Arizona. Where modern ranch design meets breathtaking natural beauty. Situated on a spacious and highly usable 0.46-acre lot, this newly built home captures extraordinary mountain views and unforgettable Arizona sunsets. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, the home features a striking metal roof and durable synthetic stucco exterior. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan enhanced by high ceilings, abundant natural light, and wood-plank ceramic tile flooring that flows seamlessly throughout. The custom kitchen is the centerpiece of the home, showcasing quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, modern lighting, and quality cabinetry with soft-close hinges perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a peaceful escape, complete with a walk-in closet, dual vanity, and a spacious walk-in shower. Elegant French doors provide direct access to the outdoors, inviting you to enjoy the tranquil surroundings at any time of day. Set in a quiet and private location surrounded by serene desert landscape, this property delivers both seclusion and convenience with easy access to the Palo Parado exit. Experience the perfect blend of modern comfort, thoughtful design, and scenic beauty this is desert living at its finest.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Quartz countertops
• Striking metal roof

Tags

• EXTRAORDINARY MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• STRIKING METAL ROOF
• SYNTHETIC STUCCO EXTERIOR
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-457 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $278k implies a 2680% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,303 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,046
• List price: $278,000
• Delta: -2.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $122,308
• Equity at exit: $250,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $383,138
• Equity at exit: $540,093

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,170/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,432

Max offer price $211,828

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
290 Via Mantaraya Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,800	$1.16	1d	1	0.16mi
1691 Gamo Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	14d	1	1.31mi
1731 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	1d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $278,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $278,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $278,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $278,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $278,000 Active 1355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    Welcome to your private desert retreat at 1678 Avenida Calamar in Rio Rico, Arizona. Where modern ranch design meets breathtaking natural beauty. Situated on a spacious and highly usable 0.46-acre lot, this newly built home captures extraordinary mountain views and unforgettable Arizona sunsets. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, the home features a striking metal roof and durable synthetic stucco exterior. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan enhanced by high ceilings, abundant natural light, and wood-plank ceramic tile flooring that flows seamlessly throughout. The custom kitchen is the centerpiece of the home, showcasing quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, modern lighting, and quality cabinetry with soft-close hinges perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a peaceful escape, complete with a walk-in closet, dual vanity, and a spacious walk-in shower. Elegant French doors provide direct access to the outdoors, inviting you to enjoy the tranquil surroundings at any time of day. Set in a quiet and private location surrounded by serene desert landscape, this property delivers both seclusion and convenience with easy access to the Palo Parado exit. Experience the perfect blend of modern comfort, thoughtful design, and scenic beauty this is desert living at its finest.

16. 2025-01-06
    soldstatus $10,000
17. 2006-06-15
    soldstatus $9,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$4,170
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$10,541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,530
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2681.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $278,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $9,995 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $147 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.