10781 Ichetucknee Way · Trinity, FL 34655

$278,440

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,394 sqft · Townhouse · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $200/sqft · 17% below area Est $337k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome is host to an inviting open-concept layout on the first floor, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space. Two bedrooms make up the second level, including a lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A single-car garage offers ample storage and parking space at the back of the home.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 10 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Trinity — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#156 in FL, #2,369 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 69% / reading 73%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 639 students, 40% FRL); Seven Springs Middle School (math 73% / reading 65%, grade A, #68 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 1,628 students, 36% FRL); James W. Mitchell High School (math 60% / reading 63%, grade B-, #100 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 2,155 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 805 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $229,869 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,340
• List price: $278,440
• Delta: -17.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3738 Lonzalo	0.07mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,510 (+8%)	2mo	$350,740	$232	76
10815 Ichetucknee Way	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,510 (+8%)	6mo	$331,540	$220	75
10837 Ichetucknee	0.05mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,510 (+8%)	6mo	$343,900	$228	74
3436 Lonzalo Way	0.38mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,530 (+10%)	1mo	$345,000	$225	60
10629 Marsha Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,530 (+10%)	9mo	$355,000	$232	57
10647 Marsha Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,530 (+10%)	21mo	$343,000	$224	46
3448 Lonzalo Way	0.37mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,530 (+10%)	19mo	$347,000	$227	46
3429 Durrance St	0.42mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,530 (+10%)	18mo	$335,000	$219	44
3801 Herlong St	0.65mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,240 (-11%)	3mo	$315,000	$254	44
3806 Herlong St	0.63mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,280 (-8%)	22mo	$305,000	$238	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-58,716
• Equity at exit: $41,516

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-85,901
• Equity at exit: $24,074

Cash invested: $77,963 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 44.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $281,990 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 17 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34655

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 805
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,460
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,177/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,436

Max offer price $262,774

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $-12	+0% $-108	+5% $-204	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-199	+0% $-108	+5% $-17	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-37	base $-108	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,610
• Closing costs: $8,353
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10764 Ichetucknee Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1510	$2,500	$1.66	73d	1	0.01mi
10812 Ichetucknee Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1510	$2,550	$1.69	94d	1	0.03mi
10812 Ichetucknee Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1510	$2,550	$1.69	10d	1	0.03mi
3774 Lonzalo Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.5	1463	$2,100	$1.44	3d	1	0.04mi
10822 Ichetucknee Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	108d	1	0.04mi
10653 Marsha Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1530	$2,600	$1.70	63d	1	0.30mi
10715 Marsha Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1617	$2,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.31mi
10715 Marsha Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1617	$2,800	$1.73	27d	1	0.31mi
3104 Town Ave Trinity, FL	1.0	1.0	882	$1,100	$1.25	3d	1	0.71mi
3104 Town Ave Trinity, FL	1.0	1.0	882	$1,100	$1.25	120d	1	0.71mi
11200 Callisia Dr Odessa, FL	2.0	2.0	1689	$2,900	$1.72	120d	1	0.74mi
3944 Watson Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,600	$1.61	107d	1	0.84mi
3554 Teeside Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,750	$1.52	10d	1	1.01mi
3832 Teeside Dr Unit 4 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$1,495	$1.56	106d	1	1.01mi
3832 Teeside Dr Unit 1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,495	$1.45	101d	1	1.01mi
3819 Teeside Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$1,400	$1.46	8d	1	1.04mi
3516 Teeside Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$1,800	$1.40	43d	1	1.04mi
3712 Trophy Blvd New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	10d	1	1.18mi
3668 Trophy Blvd New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$2,100	$2.28	32d	1	1.18mi
9635 Greenskeeper Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,900	$1.66	120d	1	1.19mi
3683 Trophy Blvd New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,575	$1.71	45d	1	1.23mi
9400 Alta Sol Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,749	$1.49	78d	1	1.45mi
4217 Prado Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,800	$1.55	10d	1	1.46mi
9303 Golf View Dr Unit 1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,500	$2.49	32d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,440 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,440 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,440 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,440 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,440 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   remarks 362-char remark
7. 2026-06-08
   listed $278,440 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,597
• − Property taxes: −$4,177
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − Depreciation: −$8,100
• Taxable loss: −$6,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,463
• After-tax cash flow: $164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhome features a modern open-concept layout and well-maintained interiors, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the living areas — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase the home's value and appeal to a wider range of buyers/tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 67/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Longleaf Elementary School A- FL #320/2,144 Nat'l #3,228/41,679 Middle Seven Springs Middle School A FL #68/571 Nat'l #913/14,009 High James W. Mitchell High School B- FL #100/667 Nat'l #3,404/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Trinity

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #2369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 137,708
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,964
• Household income: $85,470
• Rent vs Own: 23.5% rent · 76.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.58%
• Current HPI: 278.3649
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.70%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B