6925 SE Guernsey Rd · Ventura, NM 88030

$91,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 1995 4.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3.5 acres just south of NM 549 on DeBaca Rd. The property goes from Guernsey to Jersey. It's fenced. There is a well, septic system and electricity. All you have to do is build a house or bring in a manufactured home. .. everything else is ready. You are walking distance to St. Clair Winery. Great view of the Florida Mountains. Close to town and just off a paved road. Call today for details.

Key facts

• 4.5 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Water from well; Septic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house (single wide) on land; Residential property; Located in county zoning
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Wire fencing; Metal roof; Shed(s); Well water; Septic tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning (gas); Forced air heating (propane)
• Interior features: Aluminum-framed windows; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#271 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $633 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.22%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $13,983
• Equity at exit: $13,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $49,163
• Equity at exit: $7,911

Cash invested: $25,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88030

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$480
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $679

Max offer price $91,500

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,875
• Closing costs: $2,745
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   listed $91,500 Active
3. 2017-03-03
   soldstatus 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   3.5 acres just south of NM 549 on DeBaca Rd. The property goes from Guernsey to Jersey. It's fenced. There is a well, septic system and electricity. All you have to do is build a house or bring in a manufactured home. .. everything else is ready. You are walking distance to St. Clair Winery. Great view of the Florida Mountains. Close to town and just off a paved road. Call today for details.

4. 2016-04-01
   listed $29,900 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   3.5 acres just south of NM 549 on DeBaca Rd. The property goes from Guernsey to Jersey. It's fenced. There is a well, septic system and electricity. All you have to do is build a house or bring in a manufactured home. .. everything else is ready. You are walking distance to St. Clair Winery. Great view of the Florida Mountains. Close to town and just off a paved road. Call today for details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$507/yr (+$42/mo · 225.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,125
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$458
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$2,662
• Taxable income: $4,158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$998
• After-tax cash flow: $4,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deming Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500690
• Math proficiency: 18% —
• Reading proficiency: 27% —
• Median HH income: $28,092
• Composite: 21.02/100
• National rank: #13708
• State rank: #63 of 95 in NM

Livability — Ventura

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #25401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ventura, NM
• Population (ZIP): 24,270

Population outlook (Luna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,859 people
• By 2030: 22,105 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 20,738 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 19,336 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 15,439 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 9,313 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% White 30% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Luna

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.4% · R 58.3% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+3.9 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.37%
• Current HPI: 114.8626
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+206.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $91,500 NMMLS
• 2017-03-03 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2016-04-01 Listed $29,900 NMMLS

Property tax history

+20.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $225 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.