5655 Garden Valley Rd · Evansville, IN 47630

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1957 8,712 sqft lot $102/sqft · 31% below area Est $290k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Newburgh offers comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to a warm and inviting main level that’s perfect for everyday living. The real standout feature is the spacious basement; complete with a cozy corner bar and mini fridge. Whether you’re hosting friends, setting up a game room, or just enjoying a quiet evening in, this space is built for fun and flexibility. Out back, you’ll find a fully fenced yard—perfect for pets, kids, or simply relaxing outdoors with peace of mind. With plenty of room to play, garden, or entertain, it’s a home you’ll love year-round. Move-in ready and full of charm, this property is waiting for you to make it yours!

Key facts

• Cozy corner bar
• Spacious basement
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• SPACIOUS BASEMENT
• COZY CORNER BAR
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.6% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#416 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.57%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,855
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -31.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5768 Garden Valley Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,677 (-14%)	4mo	$280,000	$167	68
6077 Grand River Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,930 (-1%)	1mo	$240,000	$124	66
10744 Willow Creek Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-5%)	11mo	$279,900	$151	66
5580 Prestwick Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-11%)	8mo	$277,000	$160	65
6000 Glen Oak Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,718 (-12%)	7mo	$325,000	$189	57
10211 Kimberly Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,144 (+10%)	9mo	$269,000	$125	53
2072 Polaris Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+8%)	3mo	$277,400	$132	51
10533 Williamsburg Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,160 (+11%)	10mo	$280,000	$130	51
10000 Kimberly Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,086 (+7%)	10mo	$290,000	$139	47
9954 Monte Way	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,152 (+10%)	3mo	$349,000	$162	47
10599 Gettysburg Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-14%)	5mo	$289,000	$173	46
2041 Polaris Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,217 (+14%)	1mo	$337,000	$152	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,807
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $84,736
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,047/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,536

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9895 Cove Point Ct Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	20d	1	0.53mi
6166 River Bluff Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1282	$2,500	$1.95	43d	1	0.53mi
10611 Gettysburg Dr Newburgh, IN	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,200	$0.99	43d	1	0.56mi
4920 Penrose Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	43d	1	0.82mi
10686 Fall Creek Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,950	$1.36	13d	1	0.82mi
4799 Imperial Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,975	$1.44	43d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $199,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Newburgh offers comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to a warm and inviting main level that’s perfect for everyday living. The real standout feature is the spacious basement; complete with a cozy corner bar and mini fridge. Whether you’re hosting friends, setting up a game room, or just enjoying a quiet evening in, this space is built for fun and flexibility. Out back, you’ll find a fully fenced yard—perfect for pets, kids, or simply relaxing outdoors with peace of mind. With plenty of room to play, garden, or entertain, it’s a home you’ll love year-round. Move-in ready and full of charm, this property is waiting for you to make it yours!

13. 2026-05-12
    price $199,000 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Newburgh offers comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to a warm and inviting main level that’s perfect for everyday living. The real standout feature is the spacious basement; complete with a cozy corner bar and mini fridge. Whether you’re hosting friends, setting up a game room, or just enjoying a quiet evening in, this space is built for fun and flexibility. Out back, you’ll find a fully fenced yard—perfect for pets, kids, or simply relaxing outdoors with peace of mind. With plenty of room to play, garden, or entertain, it’s a home you’ll love year-round. Move-in ready and full of charm, this property is waiting for you to make it yours!

14. 2026-05-12
    status Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Newburgh offers comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to a warm and inviting main level that’s perfect for everyday living. The real standout feature is the spacious basement; complete with a cozy corner bar and mini fridge. Whether you’re hosting friends, setting up a game room, or just enjoying a quiet evening in, this space is built for fun and flexibility. Out back, you’ll find a fully fenced yard—perfect for pets, kids, or simply relaxing outdoors with peace of mind. With plenty of room to play, garden, or entertain, it’s a home you’ll love year-round. Move-in ready and full of charm, this property is waiting for you to make it yours!

15. 2026-01-15
    status Pending 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Newburgh offers comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to a warm and inviting main level that’s perfect for everyday living. The real standout feature is the spacious basement; complete with a cozy corner bar and mini fridge. Whether you’re hosting friends, setting up a game room, or just enjoying a quiet evening in, this space is built for fun and flexibility. Out back, you’ll find a fully fenced yard—perfect for pets, kids, or simply relaxing outdoors with peace of mind. With plenty of room to play, garden, or entertain, it’s a home you’ll love year-round. Move-in ready and full of charm, this property is waiting for you to make it yours!

16. 2025-12-15
    price $235,900 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Newburgh offers comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to a warm and inviting main level that’s perfect for everyday living. The real standout feature is the spacious basement; complete with a cozy corner bar and mini fridge. Whether you’re hosting friends, setting up a game room, or just enjoying a quiet evening in, this space is built for fun and flexibility. Out back, you’ll find a fully fenced yard—perfect for pets, kids, or simply relaxing outdoors with peace of mind. With plenty of room to play, garden, or entertain, it’s a home you’ll love year-round. Move-in ready and full of charm, this property is waiting for you to make it yours!

17. 2025-10-28
    price $250,900 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Newburgh offers comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to a warm and inviting main level that’s perfect for everyday living. The real standout feature is the spacious basement; complete with a cozy corner bar and mini fridge. Whether you’re hosting friends, setting up a game room, or just enjoying a quiet evening in, this space is built for fun and flexibility. Out back, you’ll find a fully fenced yard—perfect for pets, kids, or simply relaxing outdoors with peace of mind. With plenty of room to play, garden, or entertain, it’s a home you’ll love year-round. Move-in ready and full of charm, this property is waiting for you to make it yours!

18. 2025-09-17
    listed $255,900 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem in Newburgh offers comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to a warm and inviting main level that’s perfect for everyday living. The real standout feature is the spacious basement; complete with a cozy corner bar and mini fridge. Whether you’re hosting friends, setting up a game room, or just enjoying a quiet evening in, this space is built for fun and flexibility. Out back, you’ll find a fully fenced yard—perfect for pets, kids, or simply relaxing outdoors with peace of mind. With plenty of room to play, garden, or entertain, it’s a home you’ll love year-round. Move-in ready and full of charm, this property is waiting for you to make it yours!

19. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Check out this BEDFORD stone home in Newburgh that is ready for a new owner. This 3 bedroom 2 full bath home has just over 1600 square feet of finished space. The large living room has lots of natural light and hardwood floors. The EAT IN KITCHEN has plenty of cabinets, counters, space for a kitchen table plus a built in shelving area for additional storage. NEW range to be installed soon. There are 3 good sized bedrooms, all with ceiling fans, and the main level bath has a linen closet and tub/shower combo. The nearly 600 square foot BASEMENT family room has brand new carpeting, and can be used so many ways. There is an additional full bath, laundry room and storage galore. Outside there are 2 garages, one attached with pull down attic storage and one detached plus a large fenced yard. Conveniently located for easy access to Newburgh, Evansville and 1-69. Don't miss your chance at this great home!

20. 2023-08-29
    status Pending 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Check out this BEDFORD stone home in Newburgh that is ready for a new owner. This 3 bedroom 2 full bath home has just over 1600 square feet of finished space. The large living room has lots of natural light and hardwood floors. The EAT IN KITCHEN has plenty of cabinets, counters, space for a kitchen table plus a built in shelving area for additional storage. NEW range to be installed soon. There are 3 good sized bedrooms, all with ceiling fans, and the main level bath has a linen closet and tub/shower combo. The nearly 600 square foot BASEMENT family room has brand new carpeting, and can be used so many ways. There is an additional full bath, laundry room and storage galore. Outside there are 2 garages, one attached with pull down attic storage and one detached plus a large fenced yard. Conveniently located for easy access to Newburgh, Evansville and 1-69. Don't miss your chance at this great home!

21. 2023-08-14
    listed $225,000 Active 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Check out this BEDFORD stone home in Newburgh that is ready for a new owner. This 3 bedroom 2 full bath home has just over 1600 square feet of finished space. The large living room has lots of natural light and hardwood floors. The EAT IN KITCHEN has plenty of cabinets, counters, space for a kitchen table plus a built in shelving area for additional storage. NEW range to be installed soon. There are 3 good sized bedrooms, all with ceiling fans, and the main level bath has a linen closet and tub/shower combo. The nearly 600 square foot BASEMENT family room has brand new carpeting, and can be used so many ways. There is an additional full bath, laundry room and storage galore. Outside there are 2 garages, one attached with pull down attic storage and one detached plus a large fenced yard. Conveniently located for easy access to Newburgh, Evansville and 1-69. Don't miss your chance at this great home!

22. 2017-06-26
    soldstatus $122,000
23. 2017-04-30
    listed $122,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,369 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,047
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$380
• After-tax cash flow: $4,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #15047

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 146,793
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+63.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $199,000 IRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — IRMLS
• 2026-01-15 Pending — IRMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $235,900 IRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $250,900 IRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $255,900 IRMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) $225,000 IRMLS
• 2023-08-29 Pending — IRMLS
• 2023-08-14 Listed $225,000 IRMLS
• 2017-06-26 Sold (MLS) $122,000 IRMLS
• 2017-04-30 Listed $122,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,047 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.