6 College St · Au Sable Forks, NY 12912

$78,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 530 Days on market

Built 1913 4,356 sqft lot ↓ 32% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located in town and walking distance to most local stores. This property is also just a short drive to Whiteface Mountain and several other outdoor activities that the Adirondack park has to offer.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1913
• Listed 530 days

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO STORES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.4% in Au Sable Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,143 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 530 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 530 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.12%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,488
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Broad Ln Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+13%)	3mo	$116,000	$64	66
29 Burt Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,744 (+10%)	15mo	$295,000	$169	58
27 Broad Ln	0.25mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+9%)	21mo	$165,000	$95	51
12 Mccrea St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,479 (-7%)	23mo	$168,000	$114	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $34,059
• Equity at exit: $53,617

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $94,006
• Equity at exit: $101,455

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12912

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,499/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   price $78,000
3. 2025-08-14
   price $80,000
4. 2025-06-19
   price $89,000
5. 2025-03-05
   price $99,000
6. 2025-01-13
   price $105,000
7. 2024-10-07
   listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,499 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,499 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$3,499
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,026
• − Management: −$1,026
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60
• After-tax cash flow: $1,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ausable Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616170
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,989
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4417
• State rank: #474 of 590 in NY

Livability — Au Sable Forks

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1143
• US rank: #23832

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,860

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Slovak 2% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.92%
• Current HPI: 290.3767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-32.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $78,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $80,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $89,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $99,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $105,000 ACVMLS
• 2024-10-07 Listed $115,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,499 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.