37 Somerset Church Rd · Roxboro, NC 27573

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 0.39 ac lot Est $224k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT LOCATION, 4 BEDROOMS & BRAND NEW!! This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is located at 37 Somerset Drive, which is just off Durham Road, minutes to Uptown Roxboro and a short drive from Durham. The home features an open concept with a large living room, kitchen and dining area. The large primary suite features a glamour bathroom that has a large soaking tub, walk-in shower and a double vanity. All new stainless steel appliances and a farm house sink in the kitchen. All new flooring. All new HVAC and water heater. An awesome firepit in the back yard! All new everything! City water and sewer. Among the upgrades already added at the new home are custom landscaping and an over-sized driveway,

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Large soaking tub
• Open concept

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• GLAMOUR BATHROOM
• LARGE SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Double-wide manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Built as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Fire pit; Rain gutters; Cleared and grassed yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Crawl space basement
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Electric heat; Forced air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Walk-in shower; Bathtub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,190 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,776
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Morning Glory Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-11%)	10mo	$199,900	$148	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $68,567
• Equity at exit: $173,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $213,430
• Equity at exit: $329,260

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27573

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $207,126

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $249,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-29
   listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,921
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roxboro, NC
• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 11,954

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.01%
• Current HPI: 286.1496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $249,900 TMLS