268 Meredith Blvd · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$299,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,938 sqft · Land · 62 Days on market

Built 2025 5,500 sqft lot $6/mo HOA ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to the Mulberry floorplan, located in the highly sought-after community of Willowbrook near a beautiful golf course in Winter Haven, FL. This spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers 1,938 square feet of living space and provides excellent curb appeal in its elevation. Inside, you'll find gorgeous White cabinets complemented by sleek quartz countertops in the kitchen, creating a modern, bright atmosphere. Tile flooring runs throughout the wet and common areas, offering durability and easy maintenance. The open layout is perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. This home is ideally situated just minutes from the scenic Por

Key facts

• Mulberry floorplan
• Open layout
• Tile flooring

Tags

• MULBERRY FLOORPLAN
• GORGEOUS WHITE CABINETS
• SLEEK QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING
• OPEN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Home warranty included
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Highland Management/Olive; Annual HOA fee of $75 (monthly equivalent $6.25); HOA includes pool; Community features: deed restrictions, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19x20); Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Fire hydrant nearby; Sewer connected; Water connected; Sprinkler meter; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction; East-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by DREAM FINDERS HOMES (Mulberry model)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Conservation area lot; Asphalt road frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom layout; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred G. Garner Elementary School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 901 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,180/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1270% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,010 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-73,262
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-100,800
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $248,348

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-150	-5% $-253	+0% $-357	+5% $-461	+10% $-564
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-443	+0% $-357	+5% $-271	+10% $-185
Rate	-1.0pp $-206	-0.5pp $-281	base $-357	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3711 Julius Estates Blvd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,100	$1.14	21d	1	0.59mi
1228 Haines Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,850	$1.29	16d	1	1.11mi
295 Lake Smart Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,100	$1.22	25d	1	1.17mi
3895 Conine Dr E Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	25d	1	1.24mi
234 Cattail Way Lake Alfred, FL	4.0	2.0	1689	$1,911	$1.13	16d	1	1.25mi
2418 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	5d	1	1.27mi
2451 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1870	$2,400	$1.28	25d	1	1.35mi
4117 Sophia Blvd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1748	$1,999	$1.14	5d	1	1.39mi
2144 Rose Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1857	$1,850	$1.00	5d	1	1.40mi
4137 Roberta Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	21d	1	1.43mi
3054 Buckeye Pointe Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1883	$2,000	$1.06	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   listed $299,990 Active
3. 2026-01-09
   historical
4. 2025-11-11
   price $359,277
5. 2025-10-22
   price $374,277
6. 2025-09-08
   listed $384,277 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-21.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $359,277 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $374,277 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listed $384,277 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid