401 W Elliott Ave · Springfield, IL 62702

$79,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Other · 16 Days on market

Built 1923 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained and newly renovated, partly furnished property for sale, which can be used as a SFH or a Duplex. Hospital district and easy access to city centre. There are 2 units with separate entrances: 3 BDR unit and 1BDR fully furnished unit which can be used as a rental one. Advantages: - Metal roof - Mechanicals have all been updated with new electrical panel/wiring, water heater, furnace & central AC - Ready to move-in First floor includes enclosed front porch, living room with a fireplace, eat-in kitchen, dining room, laundry room and 2 bedrooms with a full bathroom. Go upstairs to 2 more bedrooms and another full bathroom. Partial basement with laundry hook ups and plenty of storage space.

Key facts

• Mechanicals updated
• New plumbing
• Metal roof

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED
• PARTLY FURNISHED
• MECHANICALS UPDATED
• NEW PLUMBING
• METAL ROOF
• MODERN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lanphier High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #501 of 693 statewide, top 73%, 1,058 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.15%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $23,360
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $76,152
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62702

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,666/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 W Elliott Ave Unit A Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.03mi
1413 N 5th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 209-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $79,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$2,666
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,444
• − Management: −$1,444
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $5,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,291
• After-tax cash flow: $4,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 31,033
• Household income: $51,136
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.98%
• Current HPI: 149.1926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.95%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+64.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $79,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 2026-03-30 Sold (MLS) $74,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $74,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Sold (MLS) $36,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Sold (MLS) $36,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $47,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $49,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $47,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,666 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.