12800 Starbrimson Trl · Elgin, TX 78621

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,799 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2004 10,524 sqft lot $158/sqft · 9% below area Est $312k · 9% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 12800 Starbrimson Trail in the rapidly growing and highly desirable Elgin area. This property offers a great opportunity to own in one of Central Texas’ booming communities while still enjoying space, comfort, and convenient access to Austin. Beautiful home located in the Elm Creek neighborhood. This property offers spacious living areas, modern finishes, and a large backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Conveniently situated near schools, parks, and shopping. Potential eligibility for USDA zero down financing program makes this an excellent opportunity for qualified buyers. Schedule your showing today and see the potential this Elgin home has to offer.

Key facts

• Foundation work
• Seller credits
• Usda eligible

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FOUNDATION WORK
• USDA ELIGIBLE
• CLOSING COST CONTRIBUTIONS
• SELLER CREDITS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO AUSTIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-598 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,311 (37.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.00%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,023
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -8.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12612 Wayne Spur Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,838 (+2%)	3mo	$209,500	$114	81
17905 Basketflower Bnd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-5%)	12mo	$269,500	$158	79
17913 Honey Locust Ln	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,668 (-7%)	2mo	$245,000	$147	64
12804 Sago Palm Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-15%)	10mo	$250,000	$163	58
13020 Amaryllis Trl	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,659 (-8%)	14mo	$249,999	$151	56
23813 Glowing Embers Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$258,999	$137	55
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-7%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	54
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-7%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	54
17813 Boardtree Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (-6%)	3mo	$232,990	$138	53
13520 Knights Branch Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-11%)	2mo	$230,000	$144	52
17920 Honey Locust Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-13%)	5mo	$234,900	$150	52
13300 Banquete	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-7%)	12mo	$269,950	$162	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $117,578
• Equity at exit: $256,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $377,148
• Equity at exit: $553,692

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$609 /mo · $7,310/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,860

Max offer price $179,311

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-437	-5% $-518	+0% $-598	+5% $-679	+10% $-760
Rent	-10% $-764	-5% $-681	+0% $-598	+5% $-515	+10% $-432
Rate	-1.0pp $-455	-0.5pp $-526	base $-598	+0.5pp $-672	+1.0pp $-747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.28mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	25d	1	0.45mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	18d	1	0.45mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	0.56mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.56mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.57mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.60mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	0.64mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	0.64mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	0.65mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	0.77mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	0.77mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	45d	1	0.90mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	19d	1	0.91mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	23d	1	0.91mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	22d	1	0.94mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	1.06mi
18408 Cloudmore Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,150	$0.89	0d	1	1.33mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 681-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Welcome to 12800 Starbrimson Trail in the rapidly growing and highly desirable Elgin area. This property offers a great opportunity to own in one of Central Texas’ booming communities while still enjoying space, comfort, and convenient access to Austin. Beautiful home located in the Elm Creek neighborhood. This property offers spacious living areas, modern finishes, and a large backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Conveniently situated near schools, parks, and shopping. Potential eligibility for USDA zero down financing program makes this an excellent opportunity for qualified buyers. Schedule your showing today and see the potential this Elgin home has to offer.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $285,000 681-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Welcome to 12800 Starbrimson Trail in the rapidly growing and highly desirable Elgin area. This property offers a great opportunity to own in one of Central Texas’ booming communities while still enjoying space, comfort, and convenient access to Austin. Beautiful home located in the Elm Creek neighborhood. This property offers spacious living areas, modern finishes, and a large backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Conveniently situated near schools, parks, and shopping. Potential eligibility for USDA zero down financing program makes this an excellent opportunity for qualified buyers. Schedule your showing today and see the potential this Elgin home has to offer.

3. 2026-03-06
   listed $292,000 Active 681-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Welcome to 12800 Starbrimson Trail in the rapidly growing and highly desirable Elgin area. This property offers a great opportunity to own in one of Central Texas’ booming communities while still enjoying space, comfort, and convenient access to Austin. Beautiful home located in the Elm Creek neighborhood. This property offers spacious living areas, modern finishes, and a large backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Conveniently situated near schools, parks, and shopping. Potential eligibility for USDA zero down financing program makes this an excellent opportunity for qualified buyers. Schedule your showing today and see the potential this Elgin home has to offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,310 · $609/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,310 · $609/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$7,310
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$12,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,937
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $285,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $292,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,310 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.