10409 Alafia St · Gibsonton, FL 33534

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1992 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large lot approximately 20 minutes from downtown Tampa! This single wide manufactured home (1992) is fenced in, and recently was bringing $1500 a month in rent. There is recently updated bathroom, flooring, AC and ductwork. New vinyl plank flooring. The roof was recently sealed. Electrical panel and hot water heater are approximately 4 years old. Newer refrigerator and stove. New interior paint, new front door, new window by front door. New light fixtures. Room sizes are estimates. 11 minutes from Apollo Beach. Apollo Beach Nature Preserve is a 60 acre habitat for a wide array of aquatic species. 1.9 miles from Williams Park boat ramp, which has direct access to Hillsborough Bay and the Gulf of Mexico/America. Move in yourself, buy as an investment, or build your own home on just over 1/4 of an acre with no HOA. Great location between I-75 and US41, the entire Bay Area is accessible.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Sealed roof
• Hot water heater

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SEALED ROOF
• ELECTRICAL PANEL
• HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $170k implies a 386% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.46%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $12,020
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $96,079
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,044/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9852 Indiana St Gibsonton, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,700	$2.36	3d	1	0.80mi
9015 Hirsch Ct Gibsonton, FL	2.0	1.0	656	$1,750	$2.67	18d	1	1.08mi
8825 Oak St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1086	$2,500	$2.30	24d	1	1.09mi
8828 Kanawha Rd Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $170,000 Pending 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $170,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $170,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-03-27
   listed $170,000 Active 896-char remark

   Show marketing remark (896 chars)

   Large lot approximately 20 minutes from downtown Tampa! This single wide manufactured home (1992) is fenced in, and recently was bringing $1500 a month in rent. There is recently updated bathroom, flooring, AC and ductwork. New vinyl plank flooring. The roof was recently sealed. Electrical panel and hot water heater are approximately 4 years old. Newer refrigerator and stove. New interior paint, new front door, new window by front door. New light fixtures. Room sizes are estimates. 11 minutes from Apollo Beach. Apollo Beach Nature Preserve is a 60 acre habitat for a wide array of aquatic species. 1.9 miles from Williams Park boat ramp, which has direct access to Hillsborough Bay and the Gulf of Mexico/America. Move in yourself, buy as an investment, or build your own home on just over 1/4 of an acre with no HOA. Great location between I-75 and US41, the entire Bay Area is accessible.

5. 2024-01-17
   historical
6. 2023-04-28
   price $150,000
7. 2022-09-15
   status Active
8. 2022-09-12
   historical
9. 2022-07-30
   listed $170,000 Active
10. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,044
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $2,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$693
• After-tax cash flow: $4,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+385.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-28 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-30 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,044 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.