411 Walnut St · Hollidaysburg, PA 16648

$129,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1920 5,227 sqft lot $73/sqft · 32% below area Est $189k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming two-story home, nestled in the picturesque Hollidaysburg Borough, offers comfortable living with a cozy feel. Inside, you'll find a well-appointed kitchen, a spacious living room perfect for relaxing, and a large dining room ideal for meals and entertaining and a convenient half bath. Upstairs, there are two comfortable bedrooms, a full bath and the exciting possibility of converting an additional space into a third bedroom, offering flexibility for your needs. The convenience of an upstairs laundry area makes chores a breeze. Outside, a cute little backyard offers a private outdoor space for enjoyment without extensive maintenance. Schedule a tour.

Key facts

• Large dining room
• Cute little backyard
• Spacious living room

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE DINING ROOM
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY AREA
• CUTE LITTLE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($475/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#184 in PA, #1,549 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hollidaysburg Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #129 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,183
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -31.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Penn St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-1%)	4mo	$200,000	$115	81
619 Mulberry St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,628 (-7%)	4mo	$125,000	$77	67
408 Cedar Blvd	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,840 (+5%)	2mo	$230,000	$125	66
1006 Union St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (-8%)	2mo	$320,000	$197	62
511 Pine St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,519 (-14%)	5mo	$265,000	$174	60
606 Mulberry St	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,569 (-11%)	11mo	$169,900	$108	57
1205 Walnut St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,923 (+10%)	2mo	$220,000	$114	53
705 Clark St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,969 (+12%)	10mo	$329,900	$168	53
1307 Spruce St	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,596 (-9%)	10mo	$165,000	$103	47
423 Cedar Blvd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-15%)	5mo	$280,000	$187	44
100 Truman St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+15%)	2mo	$150,000	$74	40
805 Holiday Hills Dr	0.74mi	2/2.5	1,630 (-7%)	12mo	$240,000	$147	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-18,337
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-12,536
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16648

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,470/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,185

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1152 Four Leaf Ln Hollidaysburg, PA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1517	$1,235	$0.81	44d	8	1.19mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $139,900 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    This charming two-story home, nestled in the picturesque Hollidaysburg Borough, offers comfortable living with a cozy feel. Inside, you'll find a well-appointed kitchen, a spacious living room perfect for relaxing, and a large dining room ideal for meals and entertaining and a convenient half bath. Upstairs, there are two comfortable bedrooms, a full bath and the exciting possibility of converting an additional space into a third bedroom, offering flexibility for your needs. The convenience of an upstairs laundry area makes chores a breeze. Outside, a cute little backyard offers a private outdoor space for enjoyment without extensive maintenance. Schedule a tour.

19. 2025-07-29
    price $110,000
20. 2021-04-06
    soldstatus $95,000
21. 2008-06-23
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 2008-06-23
    soldstatus $55,000
23. 2008-04-28
    listed $69,000
24. 1986-09-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,470
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$1,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$395
• After-tax cash flow: $870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hollidaysburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211940
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,676
• Composite: 46.1/100
• National rank: #2511
• State rank: #129 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hollidaysburg

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #1549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hollidaysburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,722

Population outlook (Blair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,571 people
• By 2030: 117,966 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 109,174 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 99,542 · -18.1%
• By 2075: 76,775 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 54,326 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.9% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.3pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.77%
• Current HPI: 164.7441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+459.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $139,900 AHARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $110,000 AHARMLS
• 2021-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-23 Sold (MLS) $55,000 AHARMLS
• 2008-04-28 Listed $69,000 AHARMLS
• 1986-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,470 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.