1371 NW 12th Ln · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2000 0.34 ac lot Est $125k · 16% over $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a cute, well-maintained 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Double Wide in Montgomery Acres. There are two covered porches for relaxing. A car port for your car and a shed for your lawn mower and garden tools.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Lake panasoffkee
• Carport

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• COVERED PORCH
• CARPORT
• LAKE PANASOFFKEE
• EASY ACCESS TO BOATING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR I-75

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption established; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Community pool; Golf carts permitted; Total monthly fees approximately $6.67 (about $80 annually)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces north; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Built as a double-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered screened porch; Storage shed; Chain link fence; Paved road access; Road maintenance agreement

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 6.0% in Lake Panasoffkee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $145k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,663 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1361 NW 12th Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$125,000	$130	97
975 CR 461	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	6mo	$140,000	$127	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $43,511
• Equity at exit: $82,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $122,644
• Equity at exit: $141,530

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $202	+0% $161	+5% $120	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $109	+0% $161	+5% $213	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $198	base $161	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1115 NW 12th Ln Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,295	$1.65	23d	1	0.02mi
2248 CR 446 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,225	$1.88	23d	1	1.02mi
1314 CR 443 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	973	$1,575	$1.62	23d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $145,000
18. 2026-04-11
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2016-08-25
    soldstatus $55,100
20. 2016-08-11
    soldstatus $55,000 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    This is a cute, well-maintained 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Double Wide in Montgomery Acres. There are two covered porches for relaxing. A car port for your car and a shed for your lawn mower and garden tools.

21. 2016-05-19
    listed $60,000 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    This is a cute, well-maintained 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Double Wide in Montgomery Acres. There are two covered porches for relaxing. A car port for your car and a shed for your lawn mower and garden tools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$575/yr (+$48/mo · 91.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $2,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+141.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,100 Public Records
• 2016-08-11 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RACC
• 2016-05-19 Listed $60,000 RACC

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $629 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.