1864 Larkin St · Cleveland, NY 13037

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! Rents out for 850/monthly. With some work could be returned to a great family home as well. Simply a great location. .. .close to the lake and all that it offers. Nice yard and back deck. Double drive and one-car garage help to set this house apart within it& apos; s price range.

Key facts

• One-car garage
• Close to the lake
• Great location

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO THE LAKE
• NICE YARD
• BACK DECK
• DOUBLE DRIVE
• ONE-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 3.1% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,137 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chittenango Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #192 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bridgeport Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 234 students, 38% FRL); Chittenango Middle School (math 47% / reading 61%, grade B-, #225 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 562 students, 42% FRL); Chittenango High School (math 87% / reading 84%, grade A, #358 of 1,100 statewide, top 33%, 623 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.22%
• DSCR: 4.61
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $411,378
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
240 Marine View Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+6%)	4mo	$450,000	$281	68
206 Marineview Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,456 (-4%)	5mo	$395,000	$271	58
2097 State Route 31	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,428 (-6%)	9mo	$335,000	$235	57
226 Marineview Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+12%)	9mo	$475,000	$279	54
204 Marineview Dr #204	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+12%)	12mo	$465,000	$274	48
1665 State Route 31	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,680 (+11%)	10mo	$192,500	$115	43
208 Marineview Dr #208	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+12%)	19mo	$450,000	$265	43
238 Marine View Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+13%)	22mo	$425,000	$247	39
103 Harbor Shore Dr #103	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-14%)	16mo	$429,900	$331	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $73,275
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.83×
• Total profit: $173,111
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13037

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,750/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $1,327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $792

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,366	-5% $1,346	+0% $1,327	+5% $1,307	+10% $1,287
Rent	-10% $1,131	-5% $1,229	+0% $1,327	+5% $1,424	+10% $1,522
Rate	-1.0pp $1,362	-0.5pp $1,344	base $1,327	+0.5pp $1,308	+1.0pp $1,290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $70,000 Active
17. 2014-07-08
    listed $44,900
18. 2012-09-08
    listed $44,900
19. 2001-12-20
    soldstatus $55,000
20. 1998-04-23
    soldstatus $36,700
21. 1997-06-16
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,750 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,750 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$2,750
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $15,850
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,804
• After-tax cash flow: $12,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chittenango Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607470
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $62,521
• Composite: 54.34/100
• National rank: #1365
• State rank: #192 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1137
• US rank: #23552

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,519

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.53%
• Current HPI: 272.9953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+59.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $70,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-07-08 Listed $44,900 CNYIS
• 2012-09-08 Listed $44,900 CNYIS
• 2001-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $36,700 Public Records
• 1997-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,750 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.