28826 Hidden Cove Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$305,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,267 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2007 7,200 sqft lot Est $306k · at est. $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover Hidden Lake Estates. Mins to The Woodlands, 249, TX99. Don't miss this beautifully maintained 2-story, 4 beds, 2.5 baths. Kitchen nestled between dining & family area is designed for both everyday living & entertaining. The primary suite offers dual vanities, garden tub, semi-frameless shower, updated lighting, & WIC. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious gameroom w/ 3 secondary bedrooms & generous closet space. Enjoy outdoor living year-round under the covered back patio overlooking a spacious backyard shaded by mature trees. Storage is abundant - space under staircase & floored attic storage. Updates include NEW dishwasher, fence, light fixtures, fau

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Covered back patio
• New dishwasher

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Hidden Lake Estates homeowners association; Annual association fee of $490; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Built in 2007; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (second floor) — 12x13; Bedroom (second floor) — 13x13; Bedroom (second floor) — 11x13
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Primary bathroom with soaking tub and separate shower; Bath in primary bedroom; Window coverings; Ceiling fans; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,912 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,045
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28826 Hidden Cove Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,267 (0%)	0mo	$305,000	$135	100
9207 Hidden Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+1%)	5mo	$320,000	$140	87
9210 E Lakeside Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-0%)	6mo	$285,000	$126	86
9302 E Lakeside Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,288 (+1%)	8mo	$314,999	$138	86
28918 Hidden Cove Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,456 (+8%)	5mo	$325,000	$132	78
28935 Hidden Cove Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,455 (+8%)	3mo	$314,000	$128	77
29019 Hidden Lake Ct	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,043 (-10%)	2mo	$269,900	$132	70
9215 Water Front Ct	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,464 (+9%)	4mo	$315,000	$128	70
28823 Champion Oaks Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,531 (+12%)	8mo	$355,000	$140	69
28402 Ascot Farms Rd	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,461 (+9%)	3mo	$799,995	$325	58
28622 Champion Oaks Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,973 (-13%)	7mo	$265,000	$134	55
28434 Champion Oaks Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,967 (-13%)	13mo	$365,000	$186	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $134,061
• Equity at exit: $274,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $405,132
• Equity at exit: $592,548

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,599/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,723

Max offer price $231,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-241	-5% $-327	+0% $-413	+5% $-500	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-587	-5% $-500	+0% $-413	+5% $-327	+10% $-240
Rate	-1.0pp $-260	-0.5pp $-336	base $-413	+0.5pp $-493	+1.0pp $-573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28911 Hidden Lk W Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2279	$1,846	$0.81	23d	1	0.09mi
28618 Hidden Cove Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2430	$2,046	$0.84	14d	1	0.21mi
28603 Hidden Lk W Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2478	$2,446	$0.99	26d	1	0.26mi
146 Black Swan Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2535	$2,495	$0.98	23d	1	0.89mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,320	$1.47	0d	1	1.05mi
139 Hawkhurst Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,950	$1.15	26d	1	1.15mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	12d	1	1.18mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	12d	1	1.19mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$2,168	$1.84	0d	47	1.22mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-22
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-14
   price $305,000
5. 2026-05-11
   listed $299,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,599 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,582 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: +$983/yr (+$82/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,599
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$10,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,498
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $299,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,599 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.