12510 Cobble Stone Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 963 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1973 2,912 sqft lot Est $195k · 13% under $26/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEACON WOODS PATIO HOME - PRIVATE BACKYARD W/ WATER VIEW - 2 BEDROOM, 1 1/2 BATH, 1 CAR GARAGE, CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, UPDATED BATH, FRESHLY PAINTED, NEW LANINATE FLOORING, CERAMIC TILE- KITCHEN & BATHS, ENJOY BEACON WOODS CLUBHOUSE, POOL & RECREATION. CLOSE TO MEDICAL, SHOPPING AND ALL CONVENIENCES.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Recreation
• Pool

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WATER VIEW
• BEACON WOODS CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Monthly HOA approximately $26.33 (total monthly fees); Total annual HOA fees approximately $316
• HOA & community: Has HOA (quarterly association fee); Association fee includes pool and recreational facilities; Community amenities: pool, tennis courts, sidewalks, golf, deed restrictions, association-owned recreation; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.07-acre lot
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping with trees; Paved road access; Located in a planned unit development

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $170k implies a 286% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,880 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.80%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,526
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7404 Princeton Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	926 (-4%)	1mo	$206,000	$222	83
12410 Partridge Hill Row	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,050 (+9%)	3mo	$235,000	$224	78
12615 Capitol Dr	0.26mi	2/1.5	1,000 (+4%)	2mo	$160,000	$160	78
7708 Danube Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,029 (+7%)	7mo	$121,000	$118	67
12707 Social Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,051 (+9%)	7mo	$150,000	$143	67
12031 Victory Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	946 (-2%)	5mo	$240,000	$254	66
12716 Mulberry Ln	0.40mi	2/1.5	912 (-5%)	8mo	$160,000	$175	64
7304 Country Clb	0.37mi	2/1.0	898 (-7%)	6mo	$201,500	$224	62
7513 Kensico Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0	936 (-3%)	4mo	$188,750	$202	57
7405 Country Club Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,106 (+15%)	3mo	$225,000	$203	52
12113 Victory Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,105 (+15%)	5mo	$169,000	$153	47
8024 Birdsong Ln	0.65mi	2/2.0	880 (-9%)	9mo	$165,000	$188	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,607
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,740
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 800
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,298

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $278	+0% $230	+5% $182	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $104	-5% $167	+0% $230	+5% $293	+10% $355
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $273	base $230	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	19d	1	0.10mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	6d	1	0.21mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	26d	1	0.29mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	26d	1	0.30mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	6d	1	0.33mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	4d	1	0.38mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	0.52mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	26d	1	0.52mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	26d	1	0.54mi
13113 Bartow St Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	528	$1,190	$2.25	26d	1	0.70mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	26d	1	0.89mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	6d	1	0.90mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,468	$1.33	4d	10	0.93mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	5d	1	1.00mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	26d	1	1.02mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	13d	1	1.02mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	26d	1	1.09mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	1d	1	1.09mi
13315 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	26d	1	1.13mi
11430 Rohrman Rd Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	6d	1	1.31mi
13617 Frances Ave Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	16d	1	1.34mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	26d	1	1.36mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	19d	1	1.38mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	26d	1	1.39mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	26d	1	1.41mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	21d	1	1.43mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	26d	1	1.44mi
12221 Holbrook Dr Bayonet Point, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$1,685	$2.21	0d	55	1.47mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	26d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $169,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 303-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $449 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,410 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$961/yr (+$80/mo · 214.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$55
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $2,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+286.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $449 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.