4826 Circle Twenty · Abilene, TX 79606

$304,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1978 7,710 sqft lot Est $313k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming FOUR bedroom, 2 bath home located in a cul-de-sac and is close to the Mall of Abilene and many restaurants. Home has a large den with a fireplace and open area into the dining room and kitchen. The kitchen has granite countertops, pull out sliding drawers in some of the cabinets and the pantry, and a newer stainless steel kitchen sink. The stainless steel refrigerator conveys with the purchase. The home also includes a newer HVAC which is approximately 2 years old. There is new carpet in the primary bedroom and the 3rd bedroom (that has a chalkboard wall). There is also alley access to the backyard with a concrete slab for an RV, boat or additional parking. Agent and buyer to verif

Key facts

• Large den
• Cul-de-sac
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• LARGE DEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PULL OUT SLIDING DRAWERS
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• NEWER HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Washer and dryer excluded from sale; Listing supports financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car attached garage (approx. 20' wide x 21' long); Additional parking; Driveway; Alley access; Garage faces front; 2-car double doors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Asphalt streets; Curbs; Alley access; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One story; Built in 1978; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation; Located in the Countryside South subdivision
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; RV/boat parking; Storage; Wood fencing; Cul-de-sac lot; Few trees; Interior lot; Easements for telephone, utilities, and water lines

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1, ~14 x 15)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High-speed internet available; Vaulted ceilings; One living area; One dining area; Fireplace with gas starter and wood burning
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $304k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bowie El (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 476 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 57% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,313/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.08%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4701 Circle Nineteen	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (-2%)	2mo	$330,000	$190	83
3142 Winter Hawk Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (+3%)	2mo	$309,900	$169	79
2941 Red Oak Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,811 (+2%)	2mo	$289,000	$160	72
2517 Button Willow Pkwy	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-0%)	0mo	$239,900	$136	63
3124 Primrose Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,924 (+8%)	1mo	$309,900	$161	62
3034 Broken Bough Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-10%)	2mo	$299,900	$188	58
3297 Woodlake Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,035 (+14%)	1mo	$359,900	$177	53
4082 Esman Ct	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,034 (+14%)	0mo	$390,000	$192	52
2618 Button Willow Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (-13%)	1mo	$190,000	$123	44
2549 Woodlake Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,969 (+11%)	2mo	$374,900	$190	42
3542 Paint Brush Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (-13%)	2mo	$272,500	$176	41
4317 Hearthstone Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-13%)	1mo	$265,000	$172	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-4,232
• Equity at exit: $45,402

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $111,819
• Equity at exit: $26,328

Cash invested: $85,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,313 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,597
• Tax from tax record: −$462 /mo · $5,540/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,766

Max offer price $304,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $518	+0% $432	+5% $346	+10% $259
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $301	+0% $432	+5% $563	+10% $694
Rate	-1.0pp $585	-0.5pp $509	base $432	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,125
• Closing costs: $9,135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3134 Winterhawk Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,795	$1.55	7d	1	0.20mi
5400 Ridgeline Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2571	$6,000	$2.33	25d	1	0.40mi
3826 Crest Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,695	$1.57	44d	1	0.46mi
4617 Catclaw Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2263	$2,500	$1.10	14d	1	0.62mi
2418 Helena Cir Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2478	$3,700	$1.49	11d	1	0.75mi
2510 Gilmer Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,995	$1.52	44d	1	0.75mi
5733 Legacy Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$5,000	$2.71	5d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $304,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,500 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $304,500 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $304,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,540 · $462/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,572 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,057
• − Property taxes: −$5,540
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,180
• − Management: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$8,858
• Taxable income: $417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $5,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+73.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $304,500 NTREIS
• 2017-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-08-16 Listed $175,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,540 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.