4904 NE 123rd Ln · Wildwood, FL 34484

$299,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2011 4,276 sqft lot Est $382k · 22% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this Gardenia home in the superbly-located community of Parkwood! Home has been well maintained. Four full bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths. Large open layout on the main floor. Arched ceiling leading into kitchen. Covered stucco patio. The Parkwood community features a resort-style pool/hot tub and clubhouse with a full gym and yoga room. There is also a newly built park with tennis and volleyball courts. Parkwood is located adjacent to The Villages and very close to restaurants and shopping and the Villages Charter Schools. Lender-owned, is being sold as-is. US Bank is making no representations or warranties

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Hot tub

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CUSTOM SCREENED PATIO
• FITNESS CENTER
• SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB
• PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is unfurnished
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $80; Total annual fees: $960
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $80; HOA amenities include basketball court, clubhouse, fitness center, maintenance, park, playground, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts; Association approval required; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; breed restrictions apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community access; Lobby key required
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Faces south; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built for residential use
• Exterior features: Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $300k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,805 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $382,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12312 NE 48th Loop	0.10mi	4/3.5	1,912 (0%)	3mo	$289,900	$152	93
12313 NE 48th Loop	0.07mi	4/3.5	1,984 (+4%)	11mo	$300,000	$151	82
4951 NE 125th Loop	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-1%)	6mo	$468,500	$247	73
5008 NE 125th Loop	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,796 (-6%)	2mo	$335,000	$187	70
12185 NE 51st Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (-1%)	5mo	$310,000	$164	66
12160 NE 51st Cir	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,101 (+10%)	2mo	$460,000	$219	63
4791 NE 125th Loop	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,796 (-6%)	1mo	$360,000	$200	62
12584 NE 49th Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (+8%)	9mo	$515,000	$250	56
12624 NE 49th Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,191 (+15%)	3mo	$415,000	$189	55
4790 NE 125th Loop	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,191 (+15%)	3mo	$449,900	$205	52
1075 Napier Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (-8%)	1mo	$525,000	$297	50
3550 Auburndale Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,022 (+6%)	10mo	$330,000	$163	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-56,109
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-58,629
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34484

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,318 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,042/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,466

Max offer price $279,309

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	21d	1	0.11mi
12362 NE 50th Vw Oxford, FL	4.0	4.0	1929	$2,300	$1.19	21d	1	0.11mi
12580 NE 49th Dr Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	0.28mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	21d	1	0.79mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	21d	1	0.80mi
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	21d	1	1.26mi
424 Bowman Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,400	$2.70	21d	1	1.27mi
3795 Bismarck Ct Oxford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,950	$1.89	21d	15	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-03-28
    status Active
17. 2026-03-27
    historical
18. 2026-03-27
    listed $299,990 Active
19. 2016-06-13
    soldstatus $162,000 Sold 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Come see this Gardenia home in the superbly-located community of Parkwood! Home has been well maintained. Four full bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths. Large open layout on the main floor. Arched ceiling leading into kitchen. Covered stucco patio. The Parkwood community features a resort-style pool/hot tub and clubhouse with a full gym and yoga room. There is also a newly built park with tennis and volleyball courts. Parkwood is located adjacent to The Villages and very close to restaurants and shopping and the Villages Charter Schools. Lender-owned, is being sold as-is. US Bank is making no representations or warranties

20. 2016-05-19
    status Pending 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Come see this Gardenia home in the superbly-located community of Parkwood! Home has been well maintained. Four full bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths. Large open layout on the main floor. Arched ceiling leading into kitchen. Covered stucco patio. The Parkwood community features a resort-style pool/hot tub and clubhouse with a full gym and yoga room. There is also a newly built park with tennis and volleyball courts. Parkwood is located adjacent to The Villages and very close to restaurants and shopping and the Villages Charter Schools. Lender-owned, is being sold as-is. US Bank is making no representations or warranties

21. 2016-05-18
    historical 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Come see this Gardenia home in the superbly-located community of Parkwood! Home has been well maintained. Four full bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths. Large open layout on the main floor. Arched ceiling leading into kitchen. Covered stucco patio. The Parkwood community features a resort-style pool/hot tub and clubhouse with a full gym and yoga room. There is also a newly built park with tennis and volleyball courts. Parkwood is located adjacent to The Villages and very close to restaurants and shopping and the Villages Charter Schools. Lender-owned, is being sold as-is. US Bank is making no representations or warranties

22. 2016-04-20
    status Pending 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Come see this Gardenia home in the superbly-located community of Parkwood! Home has been well maintained. Four full bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths. Large open layout on the main floor. Arched ceiling leading into kitchen. Covered stucco patio. The Parkwood community features a resort-style pool/hot tub and clubhouse with a full gym and yoga room. There is also a newly built park with tennis and volleyball courts. Parkwood is located adjacent to The Villages and very close to restaurants and shopping and the Villages Charter Schools. Lender-owned, is being sold as-is. US Bank is making no representations or warranties

23. 2016-04-05
    listed $139,000 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Come see this Gardenia home in the superbly-located community of Parkwood! Home has been well maintained. Four full bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths. Large open layout on the main floor. Arched ceiling leading into kitchen. Covered stucco patio. The Parkwood community features a resort-style pool/hot tub and clubhouse with a full gym and yoga room. There is also a newly built park with tennis and volleyball courts. Parkwood is located adjacent to The Villages and very close to restaurants and shopping and the Villages Charter Schools. Lender-owned, is being sold as-is. US Bank is making no representations or warranties

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$448/yr (+$37/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$2,042
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,225
• − Management: −$2,225
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,600
• After-tax cash flow: $195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,050
• Household income: $92,582
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.11%
• Current HPI: 189.0678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+115.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-13 Sold (MLS) $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-05 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,042 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.