Cambria Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$229,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home is perfect for families who need space. The main living area showcases an open layout shared by the kitchen, dining room, family room and patio. The owner's suite enjoys a private bathroom and walk-in closet in the back of the home for added privacy. While two secondary bedrooms are situated toward the entry adjacent to a shared bathroom in the hall.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $229,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $269,031.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $188,421 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,031
• List price: $229,999
• Delta: -14.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	1mo	$215,999	$149	79
126 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	3mo	$223,490	$154	77
546 Sormonne Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	4mo	$226,490	$156	75
184 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-2%)	1mo	$219,999	$154	74
168 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-2%)	2mo	$218,490	$153	73
134 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-2%)	2mo	$214,490	$150	73
578 Sormonne Loop	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-2%)	5mo	$215,490	$151	69
174 Salt Springs Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+0%)	4mo	$260,000	$179	68
125 Night Sky Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-3%)	4mo	$259,900	$184	65
187 Moonlight Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+5%)	2mo	$253,000	$167	60
501 Sormonne Loop	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+13%)	2mo	$267,990	$163	54
521 Sormonne Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+13%)	3mo	$278,990	$170	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-72,697
• Equity at exit: $40,113

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-114,929
• Equity at exit: $23,261

Cash invested: $75,329 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $215,392

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-278	+0% $-371	+5% $-464	+10% $-557
Rent	-10% $-520	-5% $-445	+0% $-371	+5% $-296	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-235	-0.5pp $-302	base $-371	+0.5pp $-440	+1.0pp $-511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,258
• Closing costs: $8,071
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	45d	1	0.13mi
1689 Woodlands Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$1,850	$1.22	45d	1	0.35mi
149 Red Sun Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,850	$1.30	12d	1	0.40mi
224 Blooming Trl Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,200	$1.45	19d	1	0.40mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	25d	1	0.47mi
147 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,850	$1.14	14d	1	0.51mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	45d	1	0.57mi
160 Night Sky Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	6d	1	0.58mi
1441 Star Mdw Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,900	$1.18	0d	1	0.59mi
195 Salt Springs Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	19d	1	0.61mi
310 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	6d	1	0.94mi
261 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,849	$1.35	45d	1	1.20mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	13d	1	1.24mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	4d	1	1.24mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	45d	1	1.28mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	13d	1	1.37mi
510 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1359	$1,695	$1.25	45d	1	1.37mi
270 Sheep Trail Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,785	$1.13	45d	1	1.42mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	6d	1	1.42mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.44mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,795	$1.43	19d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,999 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,999 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $229,999 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,999 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,999 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,999 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,999 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,999 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,999 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,999 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,999 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,999 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,999 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,999 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,070
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$7,826
• Taxable loss: −$9,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,228
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B