1408 Alabama Ave · Lynn Haven, FL 32444

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1950 0.52 ac lot $173/sqft · 18% below area Est $238k · 18% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1408 Alabama Ave, a treasured home in the heart of sought-after Lynn Haven. Built in 1950 and lovingly maintained by the same family, this solid cinderblock home—full of character and rich with history—awaits a new vision. While it needs some work, it offers incredible potential. Nestled on over half an acre by itself, it can also be sold alongside 1412 Alabama Ave, creating a total of 6 lots—three on each property—spanning over an acre. This is a rare investment opportunity in a prime location—bring your vision and let this home flourish once again!

Key facts

• Over half an acre
• Prime location
• 0.52 acre lot

Tags

• OVER HALF AN ACRE
• RARE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($997/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.83%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,605
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -17.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 W 14th St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-4%)	6mo	$255,000	$235	79
1419 Virginia Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-8%)	2mo	$225,000	$216	78
1402 Carolina Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-9%)	11mo	$195,000	$191	62
1207 Alabama Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+10%)	11mo	$288,000	$232	62
1112 Indiana Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,093 (-3%)	11mo	$192,000	$176	59
1007 Alabama Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,253 (+11%)	0mo	$225,000	$180	59
810 Alabama Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	1mo	$299,925	$250	52
1109 Minnesota Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-1%)	15mo	$259,000	$232	51
1201 Pennsylvania Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,255 (+12%)	7mo	$285,000	$227	50
716 New York Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-4%)	16mo	$159,900	$148	47
808 Tennessee Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+9%)	13mo	$276,500	$224	40
201 E 8th St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+13%)	15mo	$280,000	$220	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,153
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,265
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32444

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,298/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,640

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $138	+0% $83	+5% $28	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $14	+0% $83	+5% $152	+10% $221
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $133	base $83	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 Florida Ave Lynn Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,276	$1.59	22d	1	0.27mi
1307 Pennsylvania Ave Unit 1 Lynn Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,500	$1.19	14d	1	0.41mi
1019 Bradford Cir Unit 1019 Lynn Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,225	$1.51	22d	1	1.19mi
1125 Bradley Cir Lynn Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,850	$1.55	14d	1	1.27mi
3938 Solano Rd Unit 3938 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	1.38mi
3900 Arbor Trace Dr Lynn Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1520	$1,854	$1.22	14d	34	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $195,000 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to 1408 Alabama Ave, a treasured home in the heart of sought-after Lynn Haven. Built in 1950 and lovingly maintained by the same family, this solid cinderblock home—full of character and rich with history—awaits a new vision. While it needs some work, it offers incredible potential. Nestled on over half an acre by itself, it can also be sold alongside 1412 Alabama Ave, creating a total of 6 lots—three on each property—spanning over an acre. This is a rare investment opportunity in a prime location—bring your vision and let this home flourish once again!

19. 2026-03-09
    price $199,000 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to 1408 Alabama Ave, a treasured home in the heart of sought-after Lynn Haven. Built in 1950 and lovingly maintained by the same family, this solid cinderblock home—full of character and rich with history—awaits a new vision. While it needs some work, it offers incredible potential. Nestled on over half an acre by itself, it can also be sold alongside 1412 Alabama Ave, creating a total of 6 lots—three on each property—spanning over an acre. This is a rare investment opportunity in a prime location—bring your vision and let this home flourish once again!

20. 2026-02-25
    price $205,000 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to 1408 Alabama Ave, a treasured home in the heart of sought-after Lynn Haven. Built in 1950 and lovingly maintained by the same family, this solid cinderblock home—full of character and rich with history—awaits a new vision. While it needs some work, it offers incredible potential. Nestled on over half an acre by itself, it can also be sold alongside 1412 Alabama Ave, creating a total of 6 lots—three on each property—spanning over an acre. This is a rare investment opportunity in a prime location—bring your vision and let this home flourish once again!

21. 2026-02-13
    listed $215,000 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Welcome to 1408 Alabama Ave, a treasured home in the heart of sought-after Lynn Haven. Built in 1950 and lovingly maintained by the same family, this solid cinderblock home—full of character and rich with history—awaits a new vision. While it needs some work, it offers incredible potential. Nestled on over half an acre by itself, it can also be sold alongside 1412 Alabama Ave, creating a total of 6 lots—three on each property—spanning over an acre. This is a rare investment opportunity in a prime location—bring your vision and let this home flourish once again!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,298 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,298 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,298
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$547
• After-tax cash flow: $1,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynn Haven, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,459
• Household income: $83,160
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 430.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.08%
• Current HPI: 263.5418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $195,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $205,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $215,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+28.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,298 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.