3710 Gulf OF Mexico Dr Unit D19 · Longboat Key, FL
Flood risk 10/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 29 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Appreciation +5.4/10.0
- Schools +5.4/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$150,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY to own a home in a beach-to-bay community. Gulfshore of Longboat Key has it all -- private, pristine sand beach, on the Gulf of Mexico, a marina (needs to be repaired) on Sarasota Bay, large community pool, clubhouse with a commercial kitchen, a well-maintained campus and very reasonable HOA fees. Truly, Gulfshore is a remnant of Old Florida that is just six miles from the world-famous St. Armand’s Circle. This home features a living room, separate kitchen, dining room and two bedrooms. This unit was significantly impacted by the two hurricanes in late September and early October 2024. This home will require a complete remodel. Thus, the price has been reduced to the value of the land. The marina is in the process of being rebuilt. This unit also has parking for two cars and an outside shower/bathroom (needs to be remodeled) that is perfect for when you return from the beach. Gulfshore does not permit rentals or pets. This home offers the perfect opportunity to live in paradise at a very affordable price and in a home that you designed.
Key facts
- Private sand beach
- Large community pool
- 1,275 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $150k).
- Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Southside Elementary School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #110 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 687 students, 26% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL).
- Market conditions: 543 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
- Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 457 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 457 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.40% ✓
- Cap rate
- 18.50%
- Cash-on-cash
- 43.61%
- DSCR
- 2.94
- GRM
- 3.5
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Projected returns pro-forma
0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 33.5%
- Equity multiple
- 2.70×
- Total profit
- $71,359
- Equity at exit
- $49,094
- IRR
- 36.2%
- Equity multiple
- 5.29×
- Total profit
- $180,087
- Equity at exit
- $63,637
Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 34228
- Home prices YoY
- 0.3%
- Active inventory
- 543
- Price-to-rent
- 3.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,606 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$787
- Tax from tax record
- −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
- Insurance
- −$62
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$290
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$757
- Net cashflow
- $1,100
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,185 | -5% $1,142 | +0% $1,100 | +5% $1,057 | +10% $1,015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $815 | -5% $957 | +0% $1,100 | +5% $1,242 | +10% $1,385 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,175 | -0.5pp $1,138 | base $1,100 | +0.5pp $1,061 | +1.0pp $1,021 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $37,500
- Closing costs
- $4,500
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $290 · $3,480/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 20 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $150,000 Active 457 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $150,000 Active 454 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $150,000 Active 453 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $150,000 Active 451 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $150,000 Active 449 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $150,000 Active 448 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $150,000 Active 446 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $150,000 Active 445 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $150,000 Active 443 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $150,000 Active 440 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $150,000 Active 439 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $150,000 Active 438 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $150,000 Active 437 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $150,000 Active 436 DOM
-
2026-03-02status Active 1081-char remark
Show marketing remark (1081 chars)
FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY to own a home in a beach-to-bay community. Gulfshore of Longboat Key has it all -- private, pristine sand beach, on the Gulf of Mexico, a marina (needs to be repaired) on Sarasota Bay, large community pool, clubhouse with a commercial kitchen, a well-maintained campus and very reasonable HOA fees. Truly, Gulfshore is a remnant of Old Florida that is just six miles from the world-famous St. Armand’s Circle. This home features a living room, separate kitchen, dining room and two bedrooms. This unit was significantly impacted by the two hurricanes in late September and early October 2024. This home will require a complete remodel. Thus, the price has been reduced to the value of the land. The marina is in the process of being rebuilt. This unit also has parking for two cars and an outside shower/bathroom (needs to be remodeled) that is perfect for when you return from the beach. Gulfshore does not permit rentals or pets. This home offers the perfect opportunity to live in paradise at a very affordable price and in a home that you designed.
-
2026-02-11historical 1081-char remark
Show marketing remark (1081 chars)
FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY to own a home in a beach-to-bay community. Gulfshore of Longboat Key has it all -- private, pristine sand beach, on the Gulf of Mexico, a marina (needs to be repaired) on Sarasota Bay, large community pool, clubhouse with a commercial kitchen, a well-maintained campus and very reasonable HOA fees. Truly, Gulfshore is a remnant of Old Florida that is just six miles from the world-famous St. Armand’s Circle. This home features a living room, separate kitchen, dining room and two bedrooms. This unit was significantly impacted by the two hurricanes in late September and early October 2024. This home will require a complete remodel. Thus, the price has been reduced to the value of the land. The marina is in the process of being rebuilt. This unit also has parking for two cars and an outside shower/bathroom (needs to be remodeled) that is perfect for when you return from the beach. Gulfshore does not permit rentals or pets. This home offers the perfect opportunity to live in paradise at a very affordable price and in a home that you designed.
-
2025-08-31price $150,000 1081-char remark
Show marketing remark (1081 chars)
FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY to own a home in a beach-to-bay community. Gulfshore of Longboat Key has it all -- private, pristine sand beach, on the Gulf of Mexico, a marina (needs to be repaired) on Sarasota Bay, large community pool, clubhouse with a commercial kitchen, a well-maintained campus and very reasonable HOA fees. Truly, Gulfshore is a remnant of Old Florida that is just six miles from the world-famous St. Armand’s Circle. This home features a living room, separate kitchen, dining room and two bedrooms. This unit was significantly impacted by the two hurricanes in late September and early October 2024. This home will require a complete remodel. Thus, the price has been reduced to the value of the land. The marina is in the process of being rebuilt. This unit also has parking for two cars and an outside shower/bathroom (needs to be remodeled) that is perfect for when you return from the beach. Gulfshore does not permit rentals or pets. This home offers the perfect opportunity to live in paradise at a very affordable price and in a home that you designed.
-
2025-08-31status Active 1081-char remark
Show marketing remark (1081 chars)
FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY to own a home in a beach-to-bay community. Gulfshore of Longboat Key has it all -- private, pristine sand beach, on the Gulf of Mexico, a marina (needs to be repaired) on Sarasota Bay, large community pool, clubhouse with a commercial kitchen, a well-maintained campus and very reasonable HOA fees. Truly, Gulfshore is a remnant of Old Florida that is just six miles from the world-famous St. Armand’s Circle. This home features a living room, separate kitchen, dining room and two bedrooms. This unit was significantly impacted by the two hurricanes in late September and early October 2024. This home will require a complete remodel. Thus, the price has been reduced to the value of the land. The marina is in the process of being rebuilt. This unit also has parking for two cars and an outside shower/bathroom (needs to be remodeled) that is perfect for when you return from the beach. Gulfshore does not permit rentals or pets. This home offers the perfect opportunity to live in paradise at a very affordable price and in a home that you designed.
-
2025-08-11historical 1081-char remark
Show marketing remark (1081 chars)
FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY to own a home in a beach-to-bay community. Gulfshore of Longboat Key has it all -- private, pristine sand beach, on the Gulf of Mexico, a marina (needs to be repaired) on Sarasota Bay, large community pool, clubhouse with a commercial kitchen, a well-maintained campus and very reasonable HOA fees. Truly, Gulfshore is a remnant of Old Florida that is just six miles from the world-famous St. Armand’s Circle. This home features a living room, separate kitchen, dining room and two bedrooms. This unit was significantly impacted by the two hurricanes in late September and early October 2024. This home will require a complete remodel. Thus, the price has been reduced to the value of the land. The marina is in the process of being rebuilt. This unit also has parking for two cars and an outside shower/bathroom (needs to be remodeled) that is perfect for when you return from the beach. Gulfshore does not permit rentals or pets. This home offers the perfect opportunity to live in paradise at a very affordable price and in a home that you designed.
-
2025-02-10$159,000 Active 1081-char remark
Show marketing remark (1081 chars)
FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY to own a home in a beach-to-bay community. Gulfshore of Longboat Key has it all -- private, pristine sand beach, on the Gulf of Mexico, a marina (needs to be repaired) on Sarasota Bay, large community pool, clubhouse with a commercial kitchen, a well-maintained campus and very reasonable HOA fees. Truly, Gulfshore is a remnant of Old Florida that is just six miles from the world-famous St. Armand’s Circle. This home features a living room, separate kitchen, dining room and two bedrooms. This unit was significantly impacted by the two hurricanes in late September and early October 2024. This home will require a complete remodel. Thus, the price has been reduced to the value of the land. The marina is in the process of being rebuilt. This unit also has parking for two cars and an outside shower/bathroom (needs to be remodeled) that is perfect for when you return from the beach. Gulfshore does not permit rentals or pets. This home offers the perfect opportunity to live in paradise at a very affordable price and in a home that you designed.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $2,204 · $184/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,204 · $184/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $43,278
- − Mortgage interest
- −$8,402
- − Property taxes
- −$2,204
- − Insurance
- −$5,868
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,462
- − Management
- −$3,462
- − HOA
- −$3,480
- − Depreciation
- −$4,364
- Taxable income
- $12,035
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,888
- After-tax cash flow
- $10,309/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Sarasota
- NCES district ID
- 1201680
- Math proficiency
- 63% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 63% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $51,167
- Composite
- 53.68/100
- National rank
- #1428
- State rank
- #7 of 73 in FL
Livability — Longboat Key
- Score
- 64/100
- State rank
- #693
- US rank
- #14452
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Longboat Key, FL
- County
- Sarasota County · 448,376 people
- City population
- 7,539
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 7,539
- Household income
- $158,030
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 98.0
Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 452,380 people
- By 2030
- 474,175 · +4.8%
- By 2040
- 511,577 · +13.1%
- By 2050
- 541,467 · +19.7%
- By 2075
- 604,947 · +33.7%
- By 2100
- 621,965 · +37.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (93%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
- Common ancestry
- Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
- Foreign-born
- 14% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota
- 2024 margin
- R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 0.73%
- Current HPI
- 234.5017
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
-5.7% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-08-31 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-08-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-02-10 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+13.9%/yrLatest (2025): $2,204 · +141.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…